ACC expert picks 2026: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions — CBS Sports

RESOLVING THE LEDGER

ACC expert picks 2026: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions — CBS Sports | AIPROPX

The ACC is used to having heavy favorites lead the conference on the national stage, and the preseason outlook points in that direction again in 2026.

Florida State famously went 70-2 in its first nine seasons as an ACC member, winning it all with Bobby Bowden in 1993 and 1999. Dabo Swinney's dynasty era from 2015-20 included six straight conference titles, two national championships and two additional national runner-up finishes. Now, the ACC has a new school ready to take over the role of overwhelming favorite, even if it's a program that has never done it before.

Miami has five national championships and zero ACC titles, and as a program, "The U" is now 3-1 in College Football Playoff games yet 0-1 in ACC Championship Games. When the school joined the ACC in 2004, it was just a couple of years removed from fielding one of the best teams in college football history. Yet as an ACC member, there has not yet been a point when the mystique of Miami football was on full display as a conference member -- until now.

Mario Cristobal's thunderous breakthrough season, punctuated by a run to the national championship game, certified the Hurricanes as one of the top 10 programs in college football.

They've been a contender in the national picture for two straight seasons, with 22 combined weeks ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll across 2024-25, and now sit as the unanimous pick from our CBS Sports experts to win the league in 2026.

That's the narrow line that Miami navigates as it prepares for the year. Everyone is expecting Miami to handle its business as the most talented team with the most program momentum in the conference.

Yet the ACC has provided annual pitfalls for this proud national title-winning school, and the 2026 season does include its fair share of contenders, with teams like SMU, Louisville and Clemson all lurking in the top 30 of the CBS Sports 138 (though only the Tigers are guaranteed a shot at The U in the regular season).

Never before has Miami been thrust into the role of unquestioned favorite as we've seen with Florida State and Clemson. But when you're talking about the kind of history that comes with winning a first-ever ACC title, Miami will welcome the signs that this year is going to end a little differently in the conference title race.

Here's how our experts see the ACC shaking out in 2026.

Clemson : If we consider the last three seasons -- the ones with not only the transfer portal but also open NIL -- to be the modern era of college football, then Clemson is a powerhouse of the past. There's no denying the greatness accomplished by the Tigers under Dabo Swinney, but things have changed. In the "modern era," Clemson is 26-14, including 15-9 in ACC play. It has lost its place among the elite. None of which is to say the Tigers can't or won't have a strong season (there's plenty of wiggle room in the ACC after Miami), but an 8-4 mark is far more likely than the double-digit win seasons of yore. As is 7-5. -- Tom Fornelli (Also John Talty)

Duke : The Blue Devils were dealt a difficult blow at the deadline of the transfer portal window, when Miami poached their starting quarterback. With no real way to replace him, Duke settled for San Jose State transfer Walker Eget , a productive senior who will be fine for Duke. The problem is that the Blue Devils only really found success last year because Mensah was spectacular. They're going to have to play a completely different way in 2026 with a run-first offense led by all-ACC candidate Nate Sheppard . My biggest concern with Duke is a defense that ranked 122nd nationally last season in yards per play. The Blue Devils don't spend big and couldn't get expensive replacements. Manny Diaz will have to work some defensive magic for Duke to be a contender again this year. -- Chris Hummer (Also Richard Johnson)

NC State : The Wolfpack's schedule is the most favorable in the Power Four, with only one opponent -- Louisville -- ranked inside the AP Top 25. However, the Wolfpack lost several key starters to the portal and have historically underachieved under Dave Doeren when expectations are high. New starters along the offensive line give me pause, as does the challenge of replacing Hollywood Smothers ' production. -- Brad Crawford

Virginia : I'm not sold on the Cavs maintaining last year's success. The offense is undergoing a restart after losing most of its production from last year, including quarterback Chandler Morris , two running backs and four of the top pass catchers. The quarterback spot is in good hands with Beau Pribula , but hitting the restart button is difficult in any power league. On defense, most of the two-deep in the trenches is gone from last year, too. The good news is the schedule is favorable, and we'll find out quickly whether Virginia can remain near the top of the league with the opener against NC State in Week 0. -- Brandon Marcello

Cal : The program that Tosh Lupoi set up in Berkeley is not ready to be left behind. Efforts not only to retain key talent but also to supplement it through the transfer portal leave the Bears with a roster firmly capable of competing in the crowded middle of the ACC. Although I'm not ready to call the Bears a threat to Miami at the top, the continued development of quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele could give Cal the best quarterback on the field in most of its games this season. If the portal additions hit, this is a team that could find itself contending for a top-five spot in the ACC at year's end, and that's not represented by its 12th-place pick at media days. -- Chip Patterson (Also Talty, Johnson)

Pittsburgh : When trying to find an undervalued asset ahead of the season, I like to have at least one thing with that team I know I can count on happening each and every week. With Pitt and the combination of quarterback Mason Heintschel and OC Kade Bell, it's clear that the Panthers are going to score a ton of points. Heintschel emerged as one of the sport'...