RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesCaitlin Clark leads 3 bold predictions for the rest of the 2026 WNBA season originally appeared on The Sporting News .
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The WNBA is (almost) back.
Regular-season action resumes Tuesday night following the week-long All-Star break. The second half of the season will have plenty at stake.
The Minnesota Lynx , powered by rookie All-Star Olivia Miles and the returning Napheesa Collier, are on track to have the league's best record for the second successive season. A'ja Wilson will hope to win her fifth MVP award in the coming months as the Las Vegas Aces push for a fourth WNBA title in five years. Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever are hoping to go a step further than last year and reach the Finals, while the star-studded New York Liberty are more than capable of crashing the party if healthy.
Below are three bold predictions for the two months that remain before the playoffs begin, when records could fall and surprising truths could emerge at both ends of the standings.
The Fever will have a .500 record with Caitlin Clark in the lineup
The Indiana Fever has a good -- but not great -- record when Clark is in the lineup.
However, when their superstar point guard isn't available, the Fever has been flawless.
Indiana is 4-0 when Clark doesn't play and 13-10 when she does. Clark is averaging a career-best 21.0 points per game, and she continues to perform at a high level individually after injuries severely disrupted her 2025 campaign. But the Fever's collective defense and ability to take care of the basketball kick up a notch when Clark is injured or otherwise resting.
these two 🤗 pic.twitter.com/IUOC5yOA1P
— Indiana Fever (@IndianaFever) July 26, 2026 The Fever ha a challenging second-half schedule, including three games against the WNBA-best Minnesota Lynx and two meetings each with the New York Liberty and the red-hot Dallas Wings . Indiana is on pace for 28 wins and should still make the playoffs comfortably, but Clark is likely to miss a few games for maintenance -- all of which I am predicting the Fever to win, leaving them with perhaps an 8-0 record without Clark and an 18-18 mark with her.
A'ja Wilson will become the first player to score 60 points in a game
Two seasons ago, A'ja Wilson shattered the single-season scoring record when she averaged 26.9 points per game on the way to winning her third MVP award.
In two months' time, Wilson will break new ground again by averaging more than 27 points per game, and the Las Vegas Aces superstar should win her historic fifth MVP trophy.
A'ja Wilson was trying to get out of the way and STILL got the block on Angel Reese. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/2Ed2eBdoEi
— WNBA on NBC and Peacock (@WNBAonNBC) July 26, 2026 Wilson entered the All-Star break on course for her third scoring title. She can easily bump up her average of 26.1 points per game in the second half by breaking the three-way tie for the most points in a single WNBA game.
Like many other WNBA records, Wilson holds this one jointly with Liz Cambage and Marina Mabrey on 53 points in a single game.
Bam Adebayo, Wilson's partner, set the modern-day NBA mark with 83 points in a game back in March. Bank on Wilson to make her own scoring history at some point before the regular season ends on Sept. 24.
Neither the Storm nor the Sun will have the league's worst record
The rebuilding Seattle Storm has one of the WNBA's most exciting young cores. But it is too soon for them to realize their potential -- that is going to have to wait another year or two.
However, even if it looks bleak for Seattle in the present, the 6-23 Storm -- losers of six consecutive games entering the break -- will rally in the second half of the season to escape the league's cellar.
Ditto for the Connecticut Sun (7-20), who will become the Houston Comets in 2027. The Sun is a respectable 5-5 in the past 10 games, and Connecticut should carry that momentum into what should be an emotional last two months in Utica.
No, the league's worst team will be the Phoenix Mercury , who have an aging, beat-up roster and are showing all the hallmarks of a team that is going to flatline in the next two months.
Phoenix Mercury head coach Nate Tibbetts said his team is still playing for the 8th seed in the playoffs. The Mercury are currently 9-18 and 5 games back behind the Washington Mystics for the WNBA’s final playoff spot. Phoenix has 17 games remaining in the regular season. pic.twitter.com/nzHSj16VKW
— John W. Davis (@johnwdavis) July 22, 2026 Phoenix (10-18) has lost five of its past seven. The Mercury ranks 12th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating. Kahleah Copper, their lone All-Star, has missed more shots than anybody in the WNBA. Alyssa Thomas remains individually brilliant and is leading the WNBA in assists again, but her shooters keep disappearing: the Mercury has used 17 players this season, the joint-highest total in the league.
While the Sun and the Storm have young players with plenty to prove between now and September, the Mercury has the WNBA's oldest roster . Phoenix is in need of a serious retool, less than a year after reaching the Finals. It's hard to see that situation as anything other than one of the league's worst.
More WNBA news:
Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese or A’ja Wilson: Why Face of the WNBA debate has gotten out of control
Kevin Durant calls Paige Bueckers 'a machine' after early morning All-Star workout
Caitlin Clark reveals WNBA star she would love to play with again
WNBA commissioner Cathy Engelbert reveals what fans misunderstand about her job
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