RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesAriela Karmel is a political correspondent at The Times of Israel. She previously reported for Calcalist and Haaretz. She holds an MA in Middle Eastern and African History from Tel Aviv University and a BA in Political Science from the University of British Columbia.
In the final days of the outgoing Knesset, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government sped through a series of controversial laws, one measure was sufficiently beyond the pale to spur a number of coalition lawmakers to mutiny.
The law, which freezes enforcement measures against ultra-Orthodox men refusing mandatory military enlistment, particularly arrests, was meant to answer a key demand of Netanyahu's Haredi coalition partners, who want to legislate exemptions for their community.
The measure passed comfortably, but not unanimously. Among the four coalition lawmakers who broke ranks was Likud MK Dan Illouz, one of the most vocal critics of Haredi draft exemptions. A day earlier, Illouz had voted against a Basic Law declaring Torah study a “foundational value,” which is meant to block the High Court from ordering yeshiva students to enlist.
Less than 24 hours after the vote on the arrest freeze, Illouz announced that he was quitting the party altogether, declaring that Likud had been "hijacked" and that he could no longer ask Israelis to vote for it.
The breakup was mutual. Born and raised in Montreal, Illouz had entered the Knesset in 2023 via Likud's reserved slot for new immigrants. But after years of open defiance, he faced slim chances of winning a spot high enough on the Likud slate to return him to the parliament.
For much of the current Knesset term, Illouz occupied an increasingly isolated position within the party over his public opposition to preserving draft exemptions and state benefits for yeshiva students.
After Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in 2024 over his opposition to coalition efforts to legislate Haredi draft exemptions, among other things, Illouz, along with fellow outgoing Likud MK Yuli Edelstein, became the party's sole holdouts against what they saw as the government's near-complete surrender to its Haredi partners.
After Gallant was axed, the party came after Illouz, stripping him of committee assignments as punishment, barring him from submitting private legislation for weeks, and increasingly marginalizing him inside the party.
The MK insists that it is not he who abandoned Likud, but Likud that has abandoned what he calls its "traditional values."
A committed right-wing ideologue, Illouz backs West Bank annexation, spearheaded a controversial law that earned international ire for barring UNRWA from operating inside Israel and sharply restricting its activities in the West Bank and Gaza, and pushed another law prohibiting the establishment of diplomatic missions in Jerusalem that are not embassies, aimed at entrenching Israel’s claim over the city. Illouz also opposed hostage deals to free Israelis held in Gaza in exchange for ending the war against Hamas.
For Illouz and other dissenters, Likud's commitment to right-wing values and policies has been sacrificed on the altar of ultra-Orthodox coalition demands, particularly regarding military service.
While continuing to portray itself as the standard-bearer of the Israeli right and the guardian of Israel's security, the party has in practice undermined the army, seeking to preserve broad military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox despite the Israel Defense Force's severe manpower shortage and endemic reservist fatigue — after presiding over the worst security disaster in the state’s history.
“We spoke like a right-wing party and told the people of Israel we would implement right-wing policies, but we did everything except that,” Illouz told The Times of Israel in a recent interview.
According to Illouz, the party is not driven by ideology or policy today, but by a determination to stay in power, with Netanyahu willing to pay any price his ultra-Orthodox demand in exchange for their support.
“If you vote Likud today, you're voting for [United Torah Judaism leader Yitzhak] Goldknopf and [Shas head Aryeh] Deri. If someone doesn't want to give that type of power to the Haredi parties, then he can't vote Likud anymore,” he said.
With Illouz's departure and the ejection of the last slivers of internal dissent, Netanyahu’s control of the party now appears more assured and less impeded than ever.
Nearly three years after October 7 — the greatest security failure in Israel's history – the prime minister has survived what many expected would end his political career. He completed a full four-year term, resisted mounting calls for a state commission of inquiry, and emerged from months of internal battles with unprecedented influence over the party's Knesset slate ahead of October's election.
Yet that internal dominance has not translated into electoral strength. Likud has spent months polling at roughly 20-22 seats, down sharply from the 32 it currently holds, and remains unable in most surveys to assemble a governing coalition without reaching across the aisle, while chief rival Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar is steadily rising and within reach of forming a coalition made up of parties opposed to Netanyahu and his allies.
Speaking to The Times of Israel in late July, Illouz argued that Netanyahu has succeeded in dominating Likud, but has also made it incapable of winning back the broader Israeli public.
The interview has been edited for clarity.
The Times of Israel: You announced that you were leaving Likud following the passing of the law to freeze the arrests of draft dodgers, which you have opposed for a long time. Why leave now?
Dan Illouz: Throughout the Knesset term, I was the leading voice within the coalition against continuing a situation in which a large percentage of the country doesn't serve in the army, while we desperately need soldiers, and reservists are serving hundreds of days every year.
In the la...
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