RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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When some pitchers do well, it's easy enough to ignore. And with some it's impossible. Roki Sasaki is probably always going to fall into the latter group.
Two starts ago, pitching on extra rest, he dialed the velocity and dominated the Yankees . And then he followed that up with arguably his best start since joining the Dodgers , limiting the Mets to one run over seven innings of work while striking out nine. It wasn't quite the best start of Sasaki's career – he struck out 10 in his first start in June, remember – but it was close, and it was a rare start where Sasaki looked like the guy he was supposed to be before joining the majors.
Sasaki racked up his nine strikeouts with each of his pitches – five on the splitter, two on the slider, and one each on the slower forkball and his four-seamer. The four-seamer wasn't quite as hot as in his previous outing, when he averaged a career-high 100.1 mph, but it was close to the best we've seen, averaging 98.6 mph, the sixth-highest of his career. And that's big, because we've seen that Sasaki's fastball really needs elite velocity to overcome the mediocre shape he generates with it. And it only generated two whiffs in this one, so it wasn't a huge weapon.
For that, we look to the splitter, which generated 13 of his whopping 21 swinging strikes. That pitch has always been dominant for Sasaki, but the extra velocity on the four-seamer helps him generate even more separation on the two pitches and allows the slower one to play up. His slider also continued to fare well, generating four swinging strikes, too.
Add it all up, and this was just about the best Sasaki's overall arsenal has ever looked. Does that mean he's worth adding in every one of the 35% or so of CBS Fantasy leagues where he is currently available?
I have trouble getting there. I lean "yes," and I want that to be the answer. When Sasaki pitches like he did Friday, he looks like an ace. And then you look up and see a 4.71 ERA for the season and an equally mediocre 4.35 expected ERA and you remember just how frustrating he has actually been this season. Remember that 10-strikeout game back in early June? He followed that up with seven runs in 4.1 innings in his next start and 19 earned runs in 17 innings across his next four starts. It's been that kind of season for Sasaki, defined by one step forward and usually three or four steps backward.
The talent is undeniable, though, and I'm going to keep chasing it. That doesn't mean every single Fantasy team needs to make room for Sasaki – I understand plenty of you play in the kind of daily lineup leagues where streaming is paramount, and sticking with an inconsistent pitcher like Sasaki in the long run just doesn't work for you. In your case, you probably don't need to chase him unless its on a start-by-start basis. He hasn't proven to be someone you can rely on every time out.
But he could still get there, and in any league where you're at least occasionally stashing players for upside reasons, there's no question he has plenty of that. Whether this ends up being the turning point we've been waiting for remains to be seen, but I still want to be there when Sasaki does figure it out.
Here's who else we're looking to add ahead of Week 19:
If you lost Shea Langeliers to what looks like a season-ending knee injury, Alvarez is probably your best bet on the waiver-wire to replace him. You could also look at Dalton Rushing (55%), but he hasn't really looked like a difference-making bat since the start of the season. Alvarez hasn't been dominant himself, but he is hitting .298/.400/.489 and still has plus pop and has eight homers in 33 games since coming off the IL in early June – a 35-plus homer pace. Alvarez is one of the rare wildly available catchers with legit top-12 upside, and he's the obvious target if you need a replacement.
Deep league option: Joe Mack , Marlins (23%) - I don't really have much faith in Mack as much more than a No. 2 catcher for Fantasy - his skill set is still too limited and his swing is too grooved to ever hit for power without sacrificing batting average and contact. However that tradeoff is working for him right now with five homers in 50 plate appearances in July, including three in his past five games. And the hot streak has lasted even longer than that, as he is hitting .265/.325/.558 with 10 homers in 39 games since the start of June. As long as he's hot, he's a viable streamer in one-catcher leagues, but he should just be rostered in all two-catcher leagues by now.
You should be skeptical. And you should be adding Ty France. Both are true. Yes, it seems extremely unlikely that this will prove sustainable for a 31-year-old who hasn't been a good hitter at the MLB level since 2022. On the other hand, he's been very good for long enough this season, and with the underlying metrics to back it up, that I think we should at least treat him as if this hot streak is real when it only costs you some FAB to find out. France has an .894 OPS on the season, and while his underlying numbers don't quite back it up – he has a .334 xwOBA vs. a .375 actual mark – he does keep getting better, putting up a .377 xwOBA over his past trips to the plate. With the underlying data as solid as it is, France doesn't need to be quite as good as his surface-level numbers to be Fantasy relevant. And if he does keep this level of play up, he's going to be a difference maker. Worst case scenario, you just drop him if it goes south.
Deep league option: Christian Encarnacion-Strand , Orioles (16%) - Encarnacion-Strand was, at one point, a pretty exciting prospect, so maybe we're seeing a little post-hype breakout here. He has three homers and 10 hits in seven games since returning to the majors with the Orioles, and he has done it while striking out just 20% of the time in his first 30 plate appearances. It's a tiny sample size, and Encarnacion-Strand's 111 wRC+ at Triple-A this season doesn't suggest he's likely to be any kind...
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