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AIPROPX ReportYahoo Sports · 1h ago
Detroit Tigers playoff odds after Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize trades
Following a disastrous 10-9 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday, July 29 – one that Detroit Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said convinced him to orchestrate a deadline sell-off – Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson reflected on where his team stood in the 2026 playoff chase.
"I think this team remembers when it was a 0.2% chance [in 2024]," he said. "[Now], it's gotta be higher than that."
Torkelson was correct. Detroit's playoff odds after the loss on July 29 (30.1%) were significantly higher than the playoff odds the Tigers faced on this date two years ago ( 0.2% per FanGraphs ), right before the 2024 Tigers pulled off a historic run into the playoffs with an American League wild-card berth. And even after a trade deadline sell-off that saw the Tigers trade ace lefty Tarik Skubal , former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize and clubhouse leader Jake Rogers , the Tigers still have better playoff odds than they did after the 2024 deadline.
But they are still low for the 54-58 Tigers. And after a deadline that saw many of its AL rivals bolster their rosters instead of sell off players, Detroit's path to the playoffs may have just gotten a lot harder.
Let's take a look at where the Tigers stand in the AL pennant chase.
MORE: Casey Mize trade grade roundup as MLB experts give Tigers high marks
Detroit Tigers record and games back
Record: 54-58, 4th in AL Central.
Division games back: 5½.
Wild Card games back: 2½, five teams ahead.
Baseball Reference playoff odds: 28.5%
Baseball Reference is the most bullish on the Tigers of the major playoff predictors, giving the Tigers a 28.5% chance to make the playoffs and a 2.2% chance to win the World Series. Reference's odds are heavily determined based on the team's performance in its last 100 games (in which the Tigers are 50-50).
Believe it or not, Detroit's playoff odds have actually risen by 1% over the last day and by 20% over the last 30 days, according to Reference. The only AL teams that have seen a bigger rise in playoff odds over the past 30 days are the Boston Red Sox (a 74.8% rise) and the Houston Astros (a 36.4% rise).
It should be noted that Reference's playoff odds are widely considered the least reliable of the major playoff predictors. And even if they are somewhat predictive, this is basically where the optimism ends for the Tigers.
FanGraphs playoff odds: 17.6%
FanGraphs, whose model has been high on the Tigers all season despite Detroit's underwhelming performance, is souring on the Tigers.
The site gives the Tigers a 17.6% chance to make the playoffs and a 0.8% chance to win the World Series. Unlike Reference, FanGraphs believes the Tigers have a better chance to win the division (9.2%) than to get an AL wild-card spot (8.3%), but neither outcome eclipses the 10% mark.
Just a week ago, the site's model gave the Tigers a 30.7% chance to make the playoffs and a 2.3% chance to win the World Series, which was the highest percentage among all AL Central teams. But after the Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins all added at the deadline, FanGraphs is no longer a fan of the Tigers.
Baseball Prospectus playoff odds: 9.8%
The PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus are the most skeptical about the Tigers' playoff potential.
PECOTA projects the Tigers to finish at 78-84 this season, likely landing them far from a playoff spot despite a weaker-than-usual field in the AL. And according to BP's model, the Tigers' playoff odds fell by 4.8% in one day after their selloff, the second-biggest drop among AL teams behind the Baltimore Orioles (11.5%), who arguably made the biggest selloff of any AL team on Monday.
Detroit Tigers run differential
If the 2026 MLB playoff race was decided by run differential, the Tigers would be in good standing.
Through 112 games, the Tigers had a run differential of plus-63, the best in the American League Central and the second-best in the AL, behind only the New York Yankees (plus-81). Their Pythagorean win-loss total, a would-be record based on run differential, is 63-49, a record only bested in the AL by the Tampa Bay Rays (66-46).
In simpler terms, this is a playoff team on paper, supporting manager A.J. Hinch's "good team, bad record" assessment of his team. But baseball isn't played on paper, and though Torkelson's memory of longer odds in 2024 is correct, it doesn't mean the 54-58 Tigers have good odds of making the playoffs.
Detroit TigersTarik SkubalCasey MizeThe Detroit TigersFollowingBaltimore OriolesScott HarrisTigersSpencer TorkelsonNowTorkelsonDetroit
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