RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Russia is accelerating Rassvet faster than Ukrainian intelligence previously expected
Moscow plans to expand Rassvet into a 924-satellite constellation by 2035
Rassvet currently provides intermittent coverage rather than Starlink-level continuous connectivity
Russia is building its own satellite constellation, called Rassvet, at a pace that has outrun Ukrainian intelligence projections, experts have warned.
The program is intended to give Moscow the same kind of persistent, real-time coverage that Starlink has given Ukraine for over three years.
That capability shift is what now makes confrontation over these satellites appear difficult to avoid.
Why Russia's satellite push raises the stakes
According to Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy chief of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence directorate, Russia had already placed 16 satellites into low Earth orbit as of March 2026.
He also claims that Moscow now plans for another 292 satellites by 2027, expanding further to 924 satellites by 2035.
"For now, the system can operate only intermittently, when a satellite passes over our territory," Skibitskyi said.
That limitation means Rassvet currently functions as a proof of concept rather than an operational rival to Starlink.
Once completed, the constellation would let Russian forces coordinate drone strikes and share targeting data without depending on ground infrastructure.
Reliable satellite links are what currently allow Ukrainian drones to be piloted in real time across contested terrain.
A functioning Russian equivalent would remove the connectivity advantage that has favored Ukraine for most of the war.
Because electronic warfare cannot easily disrupt satellites the way it jams ground-based signals, countering Rassvet requires a different approach entirely.
Why neutralizing these satellites may become unavoidable
Skibitskyi confirmed that discussions are already underway within Ukraine's defense establishment on how to respond once Rassvet matures, but offered no specifics on what form that response might take against the satellite network itself.
Eliminating the threat Rassvet poses would likely require disabling the satellites directly, since jamming alone cannot reach them - but that kind of action would extend the conflict into orbit, a domain neither side has directly fought in so far.
Russia's satellite expansion overlaps with other reported upgrades, including turbojet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 attack drones, which drones accounted for roughly 50% of drones used in one recent reported strike, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
Moscow says it plans to produce 11,000 strike drones in August 2026 alone, as it shifts production toward these newer models.
It has also begun implementing mesh networking, a method enabling coordinated real-time control of drone swarms.
Both upgrades would depend heavily on the kind of persistent coverage Rassvet is designed to eventually provide.
At the moment, there is no independent verification of the specific satellite figures that Ukrainian intelligence is giving, and the Russian government or military has also not commented publicly on the recent development.
Ukraine's ongoing review of its options suggests that any response to Rassvet will not remain confined to conventional territory.
Whether that response takes shape in orbit, on the ground, or through other means remains an open question for now.
Via Defence Industry Europe
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