RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The U.S.-Israeli war in Iran has rocked the Mideast and spread through the region, and President Trump is now weighing what to do next to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extract any concessions from Iran\u0027s increasingly hardline leadership.In meetings with Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance Wednesday, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman conveyed the Kingdom\u0027s assessment that Iran is trying to find leverage in the conflict through escalation, and its main leverage points are through proxy forces in Yemen, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias.Prince Khalid was originally supposed to visit Washington last week but was delayed due to recent strikes, according to a source with knowledge of his plans.The Saudis joined the U.S. in strikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on Wednesday and bombed Houthis days earlier, in the first public engagement of any Persian Gulf nation during the war. The Kingdom described the actions as defensive actions. At least 20 people, including some Iranian military advisers, were killed in the Saudi-U.S. strikes, according to the Iran-backed militia groups.Saudi Arabia\u0027s leaders are trying to avoid further regional escalation that would risk miscalculation or prolonging of the war, which has now stretched into its sixth month. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his brother Khalid bin Salman have been concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who launched the war in February alongside the U.S. and met with Mr. Trump Tuesday, is pushing for escalation.During their meeting, Prime Minister Netanyahu counseled the president on three options for the war: First, a deal focused on removal of the nuclear material; second, a blockade with added economic pressure; and a third option involving military strikes particularly focused on attacking land routes used for transporting supplies, a senior Israeli official said.\u00a0The senior Israeli official described the conversation between Mr. Trump and Netanyahu as "very clinical." Netanyahu held a follow-up meeting Wednesday with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby, and met privately with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff.Speaking to reporters a day after the Oval Office meeting, a senior Israeli official defended Netanyahu\u0027s original estimate to Mr. Trump of a war that would last just four to six weeks \u2014 one that the president publicly repeated at the outset of the conflict \u2014 by saying that the "tense part" was only four to six weeks long.\u00a0Neither the White House nor the Israelis have released a readout of the meeting between the two leaders.The senior Israeli official acknowledged that economic sanctions and blockades could be effective in persuading more pragmatic Iranian officials to pursue diplomacy. Pressed on whether Israel has determined there is anyone worth negotiating with in Iran, the official offered only one name \u2014 Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi \u2014 and characterized him as a realist, but not a moderate.\u00a0The senior Israeli official acknowledged Netanyahu is sensitive to being seen as pushing Mr. Trump in any direction regarding the war and described the relationship as one with the president as the senior partner and Israel as the junior one. As the official put it, Netanyahu is not a vassal of Trump, and Trump is not a vassal of Netanyahu.Netanyahu still believes that the only real change in Iran will result from regime change, and hopes to achieve that goal by laying the groundwork for an uprising. Currently, however, U.S. intelligence does not assess that renewed strikes would dislodge the regime in Tehran. Mr. Trump has repeatedly said he favors negotiating with the regime, which would arguably lend a life line to those the Israelis hope to extract.The United Arab Emirates also carried out dozens of airstrikes in Iran this spring but has not publicly advertised it. Gulf allies who house U.S. troops, including Kuwait and Bahrain, have fended off near-daily incoming drones and missiles, some of them launched from Iran and some from Iraqi territory. Kuwaiti ambassador to the U.S. Sheikha al Zain al Sabah issued an on-the-record denial that the country had participated in strikes on Iran after the Wall Street Journal reported it last week.The strikes in Iraq were in response to a series of attacks on Saudi civilian infrastructure. The Kingdom also sent a message to the Houthis last week that it could strike back after the Iran-backed militants threatened a naval blockade against Saudi vessels in the Red Sea and claimed to have struck two Saudi oil tankers.CBS News tracked at least five vessels early last week, including several laden with Saudi crude oil, making U-turns before reaching the Bab el-Mandeb Strait soon after the Houthis had vowed to block Saudi-linked ships.Another Israeli official emphasized that funding from Iran continues to flow to its proxies including to pay Hezbollah salaries. Israeli Defense Forces were hit by a fiber optic or SIM card-powered drone in Lebanon earlier this week, and Israel is expected to respond.\u00a0Separately, Lt.-Gen. Joseph Clearfield, commander of CENTCOM\u0027s Marine Corps Forces, has been in and out of Beirut, since the U.S. oversees the pilot zones in Lebanon, urging Israel to withdraw so Lebanese Army forces can take control.Next week in Rome, the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the U.S. will be participating in further technical discussions about the pilot zones and steps toward a peace deal.
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