RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 2 sourcesThe release of the preseason Coaches Poll means one thing: college football season is almost here. And it's time to start the arguing.
That arguing this offseason has mostly centered on the fight for supremacy between the SEC and Big Ten Conferences, thanks to the Indiana Hoosiers winning the National Championship and closing out an undefeated 16-0 season. That was just a few months after Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said undefeated teams were a thing of the past in the NIL era.
But 2026 is a new season, and thanks to the transfer portal and NIL, it's harder than ever to gauge the strength of a team or roster from year to year. This upcoming season might be even harder than most, considering the turnover among coaches at top-tier programs.
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The Florida Gators have a new head coach in Jon Sumrall. Lane Kiffin fled Ole Miss for the LSU Tigers, while Pete Golding took over in Oxford. Auburn hired Alex Golesh from USF. Penn State replaced James Franklin with Matt Campbell. Kyle Whittingham left his longtime home at Utah to run a Michigan Wolverines program beset by turmoil after the departure of Sherrone Moore. Morgan Scalley is the new head coach in Salt Lake, while UCLA brought in Bob Chesney to try and revitalize the program.
So how did the coaches, or more accurately, the staffers who actually do the voting in the poll, do in evaluating all of these changes heading into 2026?
The short answer? Not too bad, actually.
To evaluate it, we can compare it against a potentially less biased source: analytics-driven ranking systems. These polls, which rely on efficiency numbers on offense, defense, and special teams, adjusted for opponent, are often a better indication of a team's underlying quality. Though it's up to human voters to weigh the importance of wins and losses, relative to how a team played.
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For example, if say, LSU racks up 700 yards on offense, allows 75 yards on defense, but fumbles at the 1-yard line every drive, the Tigers would get credit for the efficiency they demonstrated on offense and defense, even if they lose 3-0. Evaluating the importance of how a team played to wins and losses is one of the most important things poll voters, and now the selection committee, can do. And they often do it poorly.
But to test these preseason rankings, we can compare it to SP+, created by Bill Connelly and housed at ESPN. One of the best of this type of metric-driven ranking systems, SP+ released its preseason "poll" ahead of the 2026 season, evaluating last year's performances, returning production, and recruiting rankings.
Impressively, the top three are almost identical. Ohio State and Oregon are the top two teams in SP+, and the top two teams in the Coaches Poll. Georgia sits third in the poll, and fourth in SP+. They're followed by Texas and Notre Dame in the poll, though the Irish are third in SP+ and Texas is just sixth.
So the top five or six teams are fairly close, implying that the poll does a good job of reflecting which teams are expected to be the strongest in 2026. Though some of the divergence towards the middle part of the poll does reflect a common, and often predictable, bias.
Oklahoma and Ole Miss, both playoff teams in 2025, sit ninth and 10th in the poll, but just 12th and 16th in SP+. And that's where the "human element" comes into play. Analytics systems weren't as high on either team as humans were in 2025. But both play in the SEC, which frequently means they're ranked higher than they should be in preseason polls. See Florida and LSU in 2025, which were 15th and ninth in the preseason AP Poll in 2025, only to finish 4-8 and 7-6 respectively. Big program names and passionate fan bases may "mean more," but they don't always translate to on-field success.
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On the other hand, a few SEC teams might feel a bit undervalued by the coaches, including, oddly enough, LSU. The Tigers are 13th in the poll, but 10th in SP+. The numbers expect big things from their big transfer portal class, especially with the quarterback quality and depth they'll have in Kiffin's first season. Tennessee , too, is a bit underrated, coming in 18th in the poll, but 15th in SP+. The Volunteers had some impressive performances last year, though weren't able to get the job done in big games. While that'll have to change to return to the playoff, they're on the bubble, quality-wise.
Another underrated team? The Texas Tech Red Raiders . Perhaps no team has utilized NIL and the portal as well as Texas Tech to rebuild its program overnight, and it worked swimmingly in 2025. Yes, the Red Raiders were shut out by Oregon in the playoff, but they are expected to have a top-10 offense, and top-11 defense. That's a pretty good combination, which is why they're seventh in SP+, but just 12th in the poll.
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The biggest miss? Houston , of all teams. The Cougars sit at No. 24 in the poll, but just 36th in SP+. That Houston -Texas Tech game in Week 3 will likely be a matchup of two "ranked" teams, but one is very different than the other.
Still, all in all, the Coaches Poll isn't as bad as it could be. Yes, there are some misses, but for the most part, teams are within a few spots of where they'd be with a more advanced form of ranking than just guessing based on 2025. And hey, for fans of those teams in the 10-20 range, remember Indiana started last season at No. 19, before going 16-0 and winning a title. That's the best part of college football, you just never know.
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