RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. With 100 days until the 2026 midterm elections , new polling shows President Donald Trump facing a political landscape that remains sharply divided by geography, but less favorable than when he returned to office.
The data comes from Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of 118,886 registered voters . A Newsweek analysis compares Trump’s approval rating on July 22, 2026, with where it stood on January 20, 2025, the first day of his second term, with net approval calculated as 'approve' minus 'disapprove.'
Nationally, Trump receives 38 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval, leaving him 19 points underwater overall.
The state-by-state picture tells a similar story, with the president performing best in Republican strongholds but remaining underwater across the states most likely to determine the political balance of power after November's midterms .
Trump being underwater in every major swing state means even modest shifts in voter sentiment could help determine which party controls Congress after the November 3 midterm elections.
Use the map below to explore where Trump's approval rating stands in each state 100 days before voters head to the polls .
Trump's strongest support remains concentrated in the Republican heartland.
Wyoming remains his best-performing state, with a net approval rating of +26, followed by North Dakota at +18, West Virginia at +18, Alabama at +15 and Idaho at +14. South Dakota stands at +13 and Oklahoma at +12.
Yet even many of Trump's strongest states have seen significant declines since January 2025.
Wyoming opened Trump's second term at +47 net approval, meaning it has fallen 21 points since early 2025. Idaho has fallen 20 points from +34, while West Virginia has dropped 17 points from +35.
Kentucky provides another example of how much the map has shifted. The state began Trump's second term with a net approval rating of +23. It now stands at -1.
Support remains strongest across much of the Republican map, but many of the margins are notably smaller than they were 18 months ago.
The most politically significant story lies in the states that regularly decide national elections.
Trump is now underwater in every major battleground state:
Several of those states have crossed important thresholds since Trump took office. Florida has moved from +9 to -9. Ohio has fallen from +8 to -8. Nevada has shifted from an even 0 to -16, while North Carolina has gone from 0 to -13.
The deficits are not insurmountable, but they underscore a consistent pattern heading into the midterms: Trump's standing remains weakest in the states likely to play the biggest role in determining control of Congress.
The national demographic breakdown helps explain why the state-level picture looks the way it does.
Trump remains weakest with younger voters. Among those aged 18 to 34, just 25 percent approve of his job performance, compared with 69 percent who disapprove. Among voters aged 35 to 49, approval stands at 31 percent and disapproval at 61 percent.
Independents also remain negative, with 32 percent approving and 60 percent disapproving. Women disapprove by a 63-to-32 margin, while men are more closely divided, at 49 percent disapprove and 45 percent approve.
Education continues to be a major fault line. Among postgraduates, approval stands at 27 percent compared with 69 percent disapproval. Among non-college graduates, the split narrows to 42 percent approve and 53 percent disapprove.
These demographic divides help explain why Trump performs best in heavily Republican states while struggling in many competitive and metropolitan areas.
Every state in the tracker shows a lower net approval rating than it did on January 20, 2025.
The biggest declines have often occurred in states where Trump initially enjoyed some of his strongest support.
The pattern is striking because the largest shifts are not concentrated only in Democratic states. Many have occurred in places where Trump started his second term with a substantial cushion.
Trump's weakest ratings remain concentrated in Democratic-leaning states.
Hawaii posts the lowest net approval rating at -59, followed by Vermont at -54 and Maryland at -49. California stands at -41, Massachusetts at -44, Washington at -37 and New York at -35.
In those states, the story is less about dramatic movement than enduring opposition. Trump was heavily underwater there at the beginning of his term and remains so today.
One of the more notable features of the latest map is how many states now sit close to the line between positive and negative territory.
Indiana stands at +5. Utah is at +6. Kansas sits at +7. Nebraska is just -1, while Louisiana is -3 and South Carolina is -4.
That clustering suggests a map that remains familiar in shape but less stable in practice. Small shifts in voter sentiment could push a number of states from one side of the divide to the other.
One hundred days before the midterm elections, Trump's electoral map still broadly resembles the one he began his second term with.
His strongest support remains concentrated in Republican states, while Democratic strongholds remain firmly opposed. What has changed is the size of the margins.
When Trump returned to office in January 2025, he held comfortable positive net approval across much of the Republican map and was competitive in several battleground states. Today, many of those same states are either narrowly positive, evenly split or clearly negative.
The result is a map that maintains the same broad partisan shape—but one where Trump's position is less secure heading into a crucial stretch before the midterms.
The White House has continued to dismiss polling fluctuations, arguing that the clearest measure of public support remains Trump's 2024 election victory.
Spokesman Davis ...
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