Heath Cummings' Fantasy football quarterback tiers 3.0: Brock Purdy emerges as a favorite draft-day value — CBS Sports

RESOLVING THE LEDGER

Heath Cummings' Fantasy football quarterback tiers 3.0: Brock Purdy emerges as a favorite draft-day value — CBS Sports | AIPROPX

As we enter the busiest part of draft season, Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and I are all updating our Fantasy Football Tiers for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. To try to make mine a little bit different, my tiers are based almost exclusively on my 2026 projections. At the quarterback position, almost nothing changed at all for me in terms of tiers in the last two weeks. The one tier change was dropping Tua Tagovailoa into the bottom tier and adding Michael Penix, Jr. Their competition is much closer than I expected and I am not sure either of them should be projected to start 17 games. That makes them hard to trust even as QB2s in a Superflex league.

Allen isn't guaranteed to finish as QB1, but he is as likely as anyone. The Bills quarterback has been top three at the position after Week 17 in each of the past four seasons. He gets his own tier because I have him projected to score 25.2 Fantasy points per game and no other quarterback projects above 24 FPPG. In recent years, Allen's passing numbers have dipped with Joe Brady calling plays and now Brady has taken over as head coach. What we don't know is whether the run-heavy approach was Brady's or Sean McDermott's. If Brady loosens the reigns then 28 FPPG is still absolutely possible, particularly with DJ Moore now on the team. I would start considering Allen in Round 3 of Fantasy Football drafts, right about the time the top 10 at running back and wide receiver, as well as Brock Bowers , are off the board.

Daniels got a boost with the acquisition of Stefon Diggs , then took a hit with the loss of Laremy Tunsil . He actually projects as the best QB in this tier, due to his upgraded weapons and rushing upside, but he ranks lower because of his unstable floor and injury history. Some people are downgrading him because of how bad the Commanders offense has looked, but that is to be expected with a young QB and a new offensive system. All five of these QBs project for at least 23 FPPG, including Hurts, who may not be in this tier for some. I am getting a little concerned about Makai Lemon's availability, but it was very encouraging to hear the new offensive coordinator say that the tush push will remain a part of the offense. Hurts is easily the best value in this tier, often available two to three rounds after Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye are drafted.

This is where Prescott lands in most tiers, but Purdy and Goff are definitely outliers. Both of these QBs have CBS ADPs outside of the top 100, which is why they made my Sleepers 2.0 column. Purdy, in particular, has more upside than most managers recognize. He was QB1 on a per-game basis after Week 17 last year and ranks as QB4 on a per-game basis over the last three weeks. Goff is very likely to finish as a top 12 option, but he doesn't have the same upside as Purdy, which means Goff holds a little more value in Superflex leagues than one-quarterback leagues. My projections for this tier range from 20.9 to 22.1 FPPG, which means you should start considering them in Round 8. But, like I said, Purdy and Goff will be available well after that in many leagues. I understand if you want to shoot for the upside of Justin Herbert or Caleb Williams but one of the purposes of tiering in this manner is to show that their median projection is lower. Purdy is my most drafted quarterback through my first nine drafts.

Tier 4 includes a lot of guys who are ranked about Goff and Purdy in most consensus rankings. And I am sure a couple of them will hit their upside and beat Goff. I have little confidence which one it will be. Lawrence (rushing touchdowns) and Stafford (passing touchdowns) are the two most obvious regression candidates at the position. How much they regress will be the key to whether they can remain top 12 QBs. Williams and Dart have enormous upside, and a lot to prove as actual NFL quarterbacks. Herbert is once again everyone's favorite bet to breakout thanks to Mike McDaniel, but I am not sure this offense will be fast-paced or pass-heavy, and it is difficult to have a great Fantasy season in a slow, run-heavy offense. Shough is probably the most shocking name on the list, but he belongs, at least partially because he will be in a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense. He was QB10 in the second half of 2025 and I expect him to improve on the 20 FPPG he scored in that stretch.

Tier 5 is by far the most fun tier. It is also a little bit terrifying. Murray and Willis possess enormous rushing upside and big questions about their passing ability. Mayfield has been an enigma his entire career, consistently bouncing from borderline elite to borderline unrosterable in Fantasy Football. Nix and Mahomes have big upside, but are also coming off of significant leg injuries that have me projecting a significant drop in their rushing production. Love, well, we just wish Matt LaFleur would let him throw more passes. If the Packers defense is bad, Love could be the best QB in this tier. I do want to draft these guys in a one-QB league, but I definitely don't want them to be my only quarterback. They are excellent options to pair with someone like Goff, who offers a better floor but a lower ceiling than all of them.

We are in Superflex territory with this group. Ward has the most upside in Tier 6, but what unites this group is my expectation that they will start all season long. Darnold and Jones could make me look silly with this tiering if they match last season's efficiency spike. Like Tier 5, these guys are projected for around 18 to 19 FPPG, but no one besides maybe Ward has the upside that Murray, Willis, and Mayfield have.

Even if you are in a Superflex league, I hope you don't have to draft these guys. Rodgers and Young are the only guys I project to start 17 games, but they have given us very little reason to believe they can be even top 24 options when all the starters are healthy. Brissett was surprisingly good last year, but that was an aberration that was based mo...