RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesThe San Francisco 49ers have a wide range of outcomes for the 2026 season based on how they finished the 2025 season, injuries and other roster issues.
Sports Illustrated 's Conor Orr is the most recent analyst to make a prediction, writing that the 49ers finish third in the NFC West at 10-7 in his annual 272-game season projection, behind both the Rams (13-4) and Seahawks (11-6). Orr still has San Francisco reaching the postseason as the NFC's No. 7 seed.
In this prediction, the 49ers are in a three-way logjam with the Packers and Bears , all projected at 10-7. Green Bay comes out ahead in the tiebreaker order via strength of victory, but San Francisco edges out Chicago the same way, claiming the final NFC wild-card spot while the Bears.
Orr flagged concerns with the roster's age and health. He notes the 49ers are leaning on a 30-year-old running back, wide receivers turning 30 and 33, and a 38-year-old left tackle, with newly signed Deebo Samuel replacing an injured Ricky Pearsall.
But the bigger factor in Orr's optimism is organizational depth. He pointed to San Francisco's performance last season even without star linebacker Fred Warner and quarterback Brock Purdy for stretches, along with the strength of Kyle Shanahan's staff. Orr specifically praised Raheem Morris and Matt Eberflus, both of whom have NFL head-coaching experience, and longtime assistant Chris Foerster as reasons the operation can withstand instability.
The 49ers have one of the more difficult end-of-season schedules, though I have the team stumbling out of the gate to reflect the current injury situation and out of the bye, with a Kyle Shanahan–Klint Kubiak matchup that creates an unnecessary stumbling block the team will have to recover from down the stretch.
Orr projects a rocky start for the 49ers, with two losses to open the season against the Rams in Australia and the Dolphins at home before a five-game win streak leading into the team's Week 8 bye. However, coming out of their bye, Orr has the Rams losing a matchup pitting Shanahan against former assistant Klint Kubiak, now running the Raiders ' offense, as well as four more losses between Weeks 10 and 16 before a two-game win streak to end the season.
Even with the third-place finish in a stacked division, Orr's projection keeps the 49ers in the mix for a playoff run, part of a wider NFC picture that includes 11 returning postseason participants and two new teams — the 49ers among them — sneaking into the field this time around.
This article originally appeared on Niners Wire: 49ers brutal schedule dooms NFC West hopes in NFL season prediction
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