RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Welcome to the fresh season. The Shuffle Up series reflects how I tier positions as I get ready for my drafts. The salaries are unscientific in nature and meant to illustrate where talent clusters and drops off. Players listed at the same draft salary are considered even.
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Today's assignment is perhaps the most important one — the running backs. If there's one spot you want to run pure in any fantasy season, it's here.
The Big Tickets
$47 Jahmyr Gibbs
$47 Bijan Robinson
$41 Christian McCaffrey
$40 Jonathan Taylor
$40 James Cook III
$38 Saquon Barkley
$37 Chase Brown
$35 Ashton Jeanty
I have Gibbs and Robinson as a dead heat and if I were given the No. 1 pick 10 times, I would surely split exposure between the two. Gibbs probably has an easier schedule, and maybe if you squint you might say Robinson's body type is slightly better suited for a workhorse role. They're both three-down superstars and I haven't seen them fall out of the top-two spots in any traditional format. You know what you're getting here.
McCaffrey's efficiency had a scary dip last year, but his fantasy value was buoyed by the usage — it almost felt like Kyle Shanahan's objective every week was to get McCaffrey as many fantasy points as possible. With so much of McCaffrey's role tied to receiving work, we can at least take heart that he'll often be tackled by the lighter defenders on defense. McCaffrey presents a tricky risk/reward profile on the eve of his age-30 season.
While Cook predictably had some touchdown regression after an 18-spike season in 2024, all of his efficiency metrics improved and he still spiked a whopping 14 times. Cook was briefly a second-round pick in the spring draft season, but he's justly made his way into the first round over the past few weeks. Still on the escalator entering his age-27 season, this is a very safe place to park your money.
Brown's rushing profile looks the same over the last two years, but in 2025 his receiving work spiked significantly — 23 more targets, 15 more catches. His good-not-elite physical profile might be what pushes Brown outside the top 10, but he's a high-floor candidate, a bell-cow back tied to a team set to play in high-scoring games weekly. Consider Brown the perfect second-round pick.
Legitimate Building Blocks
$33 Kenneth Walker III
$33 Omarion Hampton
$32 De'Von Achane
$30 Derrick Henry
$28 Kyren Williams
$27 Javonte Williams
$27 Breece Hall
$25 Jeremiyah Love
$24 Josh Jacobs
$23 Travis Etienne Jr.
$22 D'Andre Swift
$21 Cam Skattebo
I understand following the money with Walker, who was paid by Kansas City and instantly installed as the feature back. But perhaps we're overrating what an Andy Reid offense means at this stage of the game — the Chiefs have merely ranked 15th, 15th and 21st in points the last three years, and 9th, 16th and 20th in yardage. I could never project the Chiefs to have a bad offense, but I no longer automatically assume this is an elite group. And while Patrick Mahomes hasn't been injury-free over this period, he still started 46 out of a possible 51 games. Walker goes down as a yellow-light pick for me; not a proactive target but someone I would still consider at the right draft cost (while admitting that phrase always feels a little like a cop out).
Love's college tape and production justified the lofty draft capital, but he landed with a challenging organization: the Arizona Cardinals. OC Nathaniel Hackett has never been someone we can trust, and Love will likely have to share work with a handful of talented backfield teammates. Even if James Conner or Trey Benson is traded or cut before the season, Tyler Allgeier is going to have some role in this offense. We also have to monitor team context when we consider any RB pick, and Love could be held back by an Arizona squad that could be the worst in football. Wanting my early RB selections to be tied to winning programs, I'll skip on Love while he commands a top-30 pick.
Most of those Love concerns will also carry over to Achane in Miami — it's a look-out-below franchise — although Achane was able to produce despite the context last year. Achane will be running behind a substandard offensive line and it's possible new QB Malik Willis will prefer scrambling to checking down when a play starts to deteriorate. Early RB picks are always tied to team success on some level, so consider Achane a second-round fade.
Aging curves haven't applied to Henry his entire career, and his Baltimore efficiency has actually been a step forward from his final years in Tennessee. Henry has also missed just one game in four years, remarkable durability (and perhaps some luck) for a power runner. Henry doesn't catch passes but he's still the automatic call at the goal line — and mobile QB Lamar Jackson has never been a big touchdown rusher. Even if Henry's efficiency drops notably, he could have a mediocre season and still fall into the end zone 10 or more times. He's still a reasonable call in the late second round, and occasionally he slips into the third, where it's an easy selection.
Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
$20 Quinshon Judkins
$19 Bucky Irving
$17 David Montgomery
$16 Bhayshul Tuten
$15 Rhamondre Stevenson
$15 Tony Pollard
$14 Jaylen Warren
$13 TreVeyon Henderson
$13 Jadarian Price
$11 Chuba Hubbard
$11 Rico Dowdle
$10 Blake Corum
$10 J.K. Dobbins
It's a boring veteran discount on Hubbard, who might eventually have to cede significant time to intriguing teammate Jonathon Brooks. And it's not uncommon to see Brooks before Hubbard in some drafts, as training-camp hype continues to push their ADPs close together. I'm going to still be cautious with Brooks, who's had two ACL blowouts and has seen just 23 snaps as a pro. Hubbard flirted with RB1 value two sea...
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