RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesThe Texas Longhorns have one of the toughest schedules in the nation this year. Texas has tough road games at Tennessee, LSU and Texas A&M, mixed with challenging home dates with Ohio State and Ole Miss and Oklahoma in Dallas. But ESPN's FPI predictor doesn't mind the difficulty of UT's schedule .
"Our schedule is real. It is a real football schedule." - Steve Sarkisian
Much of Texas' schedule is familiar. On the non-conference side of things, UTSA is a rematch from two years ago and of course Ohio State completes its home-and-home with Texas.
In the SEC, Texas A&M, Arkansas and Oklahoma are always on the schedule. This is also the third year in a row the Longhorns will face Mississippi State and Florida. Texas fans will get their first looks at Tennessee, Missouri and LSU since joining the league. UT will face all three first-time conference foes on the road.
There are several games that will be of upmost importance to the Longhorns CFP chances. Some are must wins. With others, a loss can be overcome as long as there aren't more than one or two.
Here is the ESPN FPI prediction for every Texas Longhorns game:
Sept. 5: Texas State Bobcats (Austin)
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor : Texas 98.4%
Projected Record : 1-0
The computers project a very easy win in the Longhorns first game of the season at home.
Sept. 12: Ohio State Buckeyes (Austin)
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor : Texas 53.7%
Projected Record : 2-0
Despite the Buckeyes being higher in the ESPN FPI ranking, the computers forecast a close win over Ohio State in Austin.
Sept. 19 UTSA Roadrunners (Austin)
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor : Texas 98.6%
Projected Record : 3-0
The computers project a resounding victory by Texas over it's system rival. The percentage is even slightly higher than Texas State.
Sept. 26: Tennessee Volunteers (Knoxville)
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor : Texas 75.5%
Projected Record : 4-0
The battle of "UTs" opens Texas' SEC schedule. Knoxville is traditionally a very tough place to play, but ESPN projects a fairly easy win by the Horns.
Oct. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (Dallas)
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor : Texas 75.6%
Projected Record : 5-0
With an output similar to the Vols game, ESPN believes the Red River Shootout will be a comfortable win for the Longhorns.
Oct. 17: Florida Gators (Austin)
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor : Texas 87.8%
Projected Record : 6-0
Florida beat the odds last year and beat Texas. That loss kept UT out of the college football playoff. The computers forecast a resounding revenge victory.
Oct. 31: Mississippi State Bulldogs (Austin)
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor : Texas 95.8%
Projected Record : 7-0
Texas plays the Bulldogs for the third straight year. Last year, Hail State took Texas to overtime. But ESPN projects a blowout in 2026.
Nov. 11: Missouri Tigers (Columbia)
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor : Texas 81.9%
Projected Record : 8-0
The Horns head to Columbia for the first time since the Tigers left the Big 12. ESPN projects a big road win for UT.
Nov. 14: LSU Tigers (Baton Rouge)
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor : Texas 64.0%
Projected Record : 9-0
A much-anticipated trip to Baton Rouge is a highlight of the back half of the Longhorns schedule. ESPN thinks Sark will get the better of his good friend Lane Kiffin.
Nov. 21: Arkansas Razorbacks (Austin)
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor : Texas 95.5%
Projected Record : 10-0
ESPN computers forecast a blowout of rival Arkansas. Texas plays the Hogs for the second straight year at home.
Nov. 27: Texas A&M Aggies (College Station)
ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor : Texas 65.1%
Projected Record : 11-0
The Lone Star State Showdown could decide the season for both the Longhorns and Aggies. But not to worry Texas fans. ESPN's computers believe Texas will get a big win.
This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: ESPN super computer predicts every Texas Longhorns game in 2026
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