RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Mike Tomlin surprised NFL fans everywhere by stepping down after taking the Steelers to their first division title since 2020, and he leaves behind a legacy of 13 trips to the playoffs and one Super Bowl championship. Mike McCarthy steps in as only the fourth Steelers head coach since the merger, and he brings his own Super Bowl championship, fittingly won by beating the Steelers in their most recent trip to the title game. He'll reunite with Aaron Rodgers in what is expected to be the four-time MVP's final season as he tries to fend off Father Time for one more year.
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Rodgers' announcement that he would return to the Steelers in 2026 helped boost the Steelers' odds slightly, but in July their win total started to shift back towards its original Under pricing. Their +510 odds to repeat as division champions sits well below the Ravens and Bengals.
The market has been predicting a fall-off for the Steelers for years, but they've beaten their win total in six straight seasons. They've also won at least nine games in 11 of the last 12 years and haven't finished with a losing record since 2003.
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The Steelers offense managed to be pretty average across the board, and while they ranked just 23rd in yards per pass play, above-average numbers avoiding sacks and interceptions helped keep the offense afloat. It was a similar story on defense, where overall below-average numbers against the pass were boosted by strong sack and interception production.
The biggest question for the 2026 Steelers is how the team will adjust to the culture change from Tomlin to McCarthy, who brings along a first time offensive coordinator in Brian Angelchio whose experience has largely focused on coaching tight ends. Michael Pittman and Germie Bernard come aboard to give the passing attack a little more juice after it relied primarily on DK Metcalf and a rotating cast of tight ends last year. On defense, the main change comes in the secondary with Jamel Dean and Jaquan Brisker joining the fold.
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The Steelers get the benefit of losing a road game to international travel just like the Ravens and Bengals, making the benefit relatively low impact for the divisional race. Pittsburgh having to face the Eagles and Broncos as part of their non-common opponent slate means the second half of the year looks particularly dicey, where they'll square off with six potential playoff contenders in a row coming out of the bye.
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The loss of Mike Tomlin, the potential for Aaron Rodgers to slip a bit in his age-42 season and a tougher schedule earned by virtue of winning the division last year combines to keep me away from any positive plays for the Steelers this year. However, the way the schedule is set up, this might be a better bet to make in-season if the Steelers can stack wins early and put a 9.5 or 10.5 in play before hitting the Under at a fair price. The win division price is intriguing for anyone wanted to back a positive play on Pittsburgh.
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