RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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As the public perception battle over Paramount 's attempt to seal its deal for Warner Bros. Discovery hits a fever pitch, the historic home of Hollywood — Los Angeles County — is throwing fuel on the fire.
The County's department that has been studying the potential cost of the $111 billion deal to local workers and businesses is out with its latest report of the financial impact if Paramount mogul David Ellison's merger closes.
Thousands of jobs are directly at risk as a result of the transaction across corporate, creative and production workforces, according to the Aug. 18 study from the L.A. Department of Economic Opportunity and CVL Economics, which was presented to the County's board of supervisors. While corporate workers could be impacted by layoffs aimed at cutting down on debt load and redundancies, the report notes, professionals like writers, producers and crew members could also become casualties of a smaller slate of projects at a combined company.
The report counted employment through the metric of "job-years," or a single job being performed over one year, which shows the impact of employment changes over time. For example, a job that one person holds for five years would equal five job-years. By the count, 4,500 job-years are directly at risk.
Then there are the knock-on employment impacts to workers at small businesses that rely on production like prop houses, transportation companies and caterers. Some 2,661 job-years are indirectly estimated to be at stake as a result of the transaction. As for so-called "induced jobs" — in other words, those that are supported by major studios like Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance paying unrelated businesses such as restaurants, florists and other kinds of retailers — the report pegged the potential cost at 3,204 job-years.
In total, the L.A. Department of Economic Opportunity and CVL Economics projected that $1.26 billion in lost wages is at stake, in addition to $2.78 billion in lost economic value and $4.06 billion in lost business output. The merger could entail a $547 million dip in overall tax revenue, including $78.6 million in local taxes.
In a statement, a Paramount Skydance spokesperson said the study only underscored the company's justifications for its merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, showing the industry is in decline. "Our plan to invest $30 billion annually in production and release at least 30 films a year is how we regain that ground: more production that supports more jobs over time, and ultimately, a stronger, more durable entertainment industry for generations to come."
If the merger goes through, this economic impact would take place against the backdrop of an already struggling entertainment industry in L.A. County, battered by the pandemic, strikes and a contraction in released projects. The report notes that the average number of motion picture jobs in the county reached a nadir in 2025 at 93,263, down nearly 36 percent from 2022. California has lost 52,016 entertainment jobs since 2022, with more than 99 percent of that total coming from L.A. County.
"The proposed merger of Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance introduces an additional source of risk into that already changing market," the report argues. "It would consolidate decision-making within a highly leveraged company at a time when there is less production activity to go around and greater ability to move that activity elsewhere."
A combined WarnerMount would likely need to undergo significant cost-cutting to deal with its net interest expenses ($737 million from both companies reported in 2025), which is outpacing operating income ($712 million in 2025), according to the report. That's not to mention the debt that would accrue to complete the deal, including the roughly $7 million per day ticking fee that comes into play if the merger doesn't happen by Oct. 1. Given that the transaction's antitrust trial is currently scheduled for March 2027, the timeline is looking increasingly costly.
Paramount Skydance management has already identified about $6 billion in "synergies," which are expected to come primarily from corporate in-house roles, streaming technology, cloud systems, procurement and real estate.
Beyond those cost-cutting opportunities, the report zooms in on the potential creative and production employment fallout from studio slates combining. The two companies have relationships with an estimated 895 creators and handle around 25.7 percent of all overall deals. The study authors point to the 2019 merger of Disney and Fox to illustrate how industry consolidation can decrease output, with Fox's releases declining nearly 65 percent compared with peer companies reducing their slates by around 26 percent. The upshot? A combined company that doesn't need to release so many projects could cut back, leaving workers in the lurch.
Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison has previously committed to producing 30 films for theatrical release across Warner Bros. and Paramount if the studios are combined. The report notes that it remains unclear where those films would be produced, with no guarantees they would shoot in L.A. or California.
The report points to Warner Bros.' U.K. campus in Leavesden as a tempting alternative production location to L.A. The nearly 546,000-square-foot campus doesn't yet match the capabilities of the studio's Burbank studio, but an expansion expected to be completed in 2027 will bring it close. "A company deleveraging is likely to optimize production cost per title rather than location loyalty," the study states. "On this ledger, the United Kingdom's AVEC produces a $57.708 million net benefit, compared with $43.382 million for an awarded California credit used at par and $0 with no California award. The United Kingdom can therefore cost 5.73 percent more before incentives and still match California on a net-cost basis."
This report follows an earlier interim report produced by the county de...
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