RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Pete Alonso hit a home run last night and can hit another homer today.
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The MLB best home run bets couldn’t build momentum after snapping the cold streak on Saturday. Instead, Wilyer Abreu and Tyler Soderstrom failed to homer on Monday.
The season’s record for home run bets sits at 19-74, with three no-bets. As a reminder, home run props are long-shot bets, and the record won’t be aesthetically pleasing.
Still, the season’s profits are underwhelming after grinding all year, checking in at $61 for anyone who bet $100 on each of the touted home run bets at the listed odds. It’s not ideal. A small profit is better than being in the red, though.
Wednesday’s MLB slate offers an opportunity to bolster the season’s profit and create some wiggle room to finish the season in the black. A slugging first baseman and a sweet-swinging, left-handed outfielder have the most appealing home run props today.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Pete Alonso (Baltimore Orioles - 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+360) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Among 182 qualified batters from July 16th through August 10th, Pete Alonso ranks second in exit velocity (95.0 mph), 13th in barrel rate (17.7%), first in hard-hit rate (61.3%) and 27th in steepest launch angle (21.0 degrees), but he hit only four home runs in 96 plate appearances during that period. Alonso hit a home run last night, running his season total to 26 in 520 plate appearances.
The 31-year-old first baseman has hit 20 home runs against right-handed pitching, 12 on the road and nine on the road against righties. He’s done quite well tapping into his power in same-handed matchups.
Zebby Matthews also offers Alonso with a favorable matchup today. The 26-year-old righty has allowed 17 home runs at 1.78 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) this season, coughing up a home run in back-to-back starts, seven of his last eight starts and 11 of 15 starts this season. He’s also ceded multiple home runs in five starts.
Somewhat surprisingly, Matthews has allowed nine of 17 home runs to right-handed batters, despite facing 162 right-handed batters and 203 left-handed batters. Alonso should be the latest right-handed hitter to launch a homer against Matthews, belting one this afternoon.
Dominic Canzone plays at home-friendly Yankee Stadium today and can hit his 19th home run of the year tonight.
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Dominic Canzone (Seattle Mariners - OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+389) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dominic Canzone’s home runs have climbed every season since he got his first taste of MLB in 2023, culminating in a career-high 18 homers through 348 plate appearances this season. He has hit 14 homers against righties, nine on the road and seven on the road against right-handed pitching this year.
Canzone has fantastic batted-ball data this season. Among 251 qualified batters this season , Canzone is tied for 20th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.3%), tied for 32nd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (13.4%), tied for 57th in hard-hit rate (45.8%), tied for 33rd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.0 mph), tied for 22nd in maximum exit velocity (114.7 mph) and tied for 141st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (33.6%).
Canzone’s matchup is decent. Will Warren has allowed 15 home runs at 1.18 HR/9 in 22 starts and one relief appearance this season. That said, Warren has allowed 10 homers to left-handed batters, eight at home and six at home to left-handed batters this season.
Canzone’s chances of hitting a home run will also get a lift from playing in the Bronx today. Yankee Stadium’s 117 park factor for home runs since 2025 ranks third, and its 126 park factor for homers for left-handed batters ranks first. Canzone should add to his career-high home run total with another bomb today.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
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