RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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After going 4-13 in Bill Belichick's final season in 2023 and repeating that record in Jerod Mayo's only season as head coach, a Patriots team led by Mike Vrabel pulled off one of the biggest turnarounds in recent history, adding 10 wins to their record while moving from -128 to +170 in point differential. The defending AFC champions will now look for similar success while playing a tougher schedule, and the road to a repeat starts with better protection in front of Drake Maye after the MVP candidate was battered by the elite Seahawks defense during the Super Bowl. One big piece of the puzzle shifted into place on June 1 with the acquisition of A.J. Brown from the Eagles.
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The Patriots were -150 to both go Over 9.5 wins and Under 10.5 wins on June 1, but while that price remained the same on the Over a month later, we saw a little movement on the 10.5. While they sit behind the Bills in divisional odds, the Brown trade did shorten the price by 5 cents initially, though the market threw some weight behind the Bills during July. The Patriots will have their shortest odds to win the Super Bowl in 2026 since Tom Brady left town.
A key trend to note for the Patriots in particular involves Super Bowl losers. Since the Patriots followed up their loss to the Eagles with a win over the Rams in Super Bowl 53 the following year, the seven Super Bowl losers have gone Over the win total the following season only once (Bengals in 2022), while three of the seven teams have won only six games, including each of the past two Super Bowl losers (Chiefs last year, 49ers the year before).
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The Patriots' offensive success came largely from the passing attack, which finished tops in the league in yards per play by a significant margin and more than a full yard per play better than the fourth-ranked Bills. While the defense was well-balanced in defending the run and the pass, it ranked 30th in red-zone conversion rate and last in the league in goal-to-go situations, giving Mike Vrabel a key focus for improvement heading into 2026.
While finding a way to replace Stefon Diggs has been one focus of the offseason, perhaps nothing was more important than protecting Maye better up front. Vera-Tucker is a big-name addition on the interior, but his career has largely been defined by injury thus far, as he played 43 of 68 possible games during his four years with the Jets. The Patriots got their Diggs replacement in June by trading for A.J. Brown, who will pair with Romeo Doubs in an upgraded receiving corps. The other key addition was made in the draft by trading up for tackle Caleb Lomu.
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With the NFL moving to a Wednesday opener to accommodate the Australia game on Thursday, the Patriots will kick off their season with a brutal Super Bowl rematch a day early. That's followed by their two games against other AFC division winners and then a trip to Buffalo, but the schedule eases up from there. That includes getting one of their road games moved to a neutral site in Munich, Germany.
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If you're projecting a Super Bowl hangover, the miss playoff odds look to be a pretty good value unless you're also projecting a collapse from the Bills under their new regime. The schedule is going to be tougher for the Patriots this season, and there are enough competitive teams in the other AFC divisions that I don't think you can just write the East in for two playoff spots.
However, I've come around to thinking the division odds are the better value here as I think the Patriots and Bills should be much closer. The latter is breaking in a new head coach and switching defensive schemes, and the biggest reason for Buffalo's positive outlook in the market is their MVP-caliber quarterback. But Drake Maye showed a similar ceiling last year, and the Patriots' massive edge on defense should be at least enough to counter whatever edge Buffalo has on offense.
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