RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesThe trade deadline is now behind us, and we had a flurry of deals yesterday. As a sports bettor, it is important to pay attention to this information. Not only does it signify that some teams are going to start (or further continue) tanking. It also means we probably need to reevaluate the teams and even some of our future positions. I don't normally look at a ton of baseball futures because it takes too long for them to pay off, but there might be some opportunity for us to grab value on some bets before the season ends.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are still the overwhelming favorites to win the World Series. They are +160 to win it now. Can you imagine having to face Tarik Skubal, then Yoshinobu Yamamoto, then Blake Snell, then Tyler Glasnow, then Shohei Ohtani as a rotation in a seven-game series? It is rather absurd. However, there is no value remaining at +160. The Red Sox were major players at the deadline, but they didn't get much better in their rotation. I just don't see the pitching to get it done. The Chicago Cubs at 15:1 might actually have what it takes to get past the Dodgers. They just so happen to play each other tonight, with Skubal's debut coming. The Cubs added Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes to their rotation, and that should - as long as they don't suffer more injuries - give them solid enough pitching to navigate a lot of series. Another National League team that I like is the Padres at +7500.
The Padres did not fold as some people expected. Instead, they went out and addressed their starting pitching needs. They were able to get Robbie Ray (a former Cy Young winner), and they also grabbed Casey Mize from the Tigers . Their hitting has been down, but you would think some of their guys will come back to their normal averages. At this value, I think you have to take them. The Phillies at +1800 added a guy in Luis Arraez who will be on base, and Zack Wheeler and Christopher Sanchez give them a chance against anyone.
In the American League, I like the Mariners , who addressed their biggest need by acquiring Taylor Ward from the Orioles. They are at +2200 and should have the best rotation in the playoffs, but they need to make it there first. The Rays are +1300 and one of the best teams in baseball. They will have a great 1-2 punch in Shane McClanahan and Freddy Peralta.
Fellow writer, Geoff Clark, took the Angels to be the worst team in baseball this season before the year began. He got them at +2200, so he has excellent value. They are now +145 to have the fewest wins, and they have two fewer than anyone in baseball. They traded away a lot of guys, kept their young talent, and acquired guys that could actually help later. I think even at +145 you're looking at a good ticket. The only issue is that the Angels play in the worst division in baseball while the Rockies play in one of the better ones. The Athletics have just two more wins than the Angels and are also tanking. Assuming both play their division down the stretch, the Rockies (+135) could lose more games.
The Rays are -120 to win the American League East with a 3.5 game lead over the Yankees and 5.5 over the Red Sox. If you're going to take someone in this division, take one of them at plus money. The Red Sox have been the hottest team in baseball for about a month now, and are +475.
I really like the Guardians to win the AL Central at +200. They are three games behind a good, but very young White Sox team. Chicago added some key pieces, especially Luis Castillo. However, the Guardians also traded for some good additions like Foster Griffin. The Guardians seemingly do this every year. I like them to take the division even with the Twins also chasing.
The Mariners still have the best team in the division on paper and are now +180 to win the division. Their rotation is easily the best, and Ward might push their offense into a gear they've been missing this season. Give me the Mariners.
There really aren't any divisions worth talking about in the National League. The Braves, Brewers, and Dodgers are all massive favorites. The Brewers are the only one that I could see slipping, but I don't think it is worth a bet.
For me, I'll put in a bet on the Cubs at +1500 to win the World Series, the Padres at +7500, and the Mariners at +2200. I'll also take the Guardians and Mariners to win their divisions. The trade deadline is done, but our betting on baseball has a long way to go!
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