RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 3 sourcesDec 14, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) runs for a gain past Arizona Cardinals safety Budda Baker (3) during the first quarter at NRG Stadium. © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
It’s often said that fantasy football championships aren’t won early—only lost. For the most part, I agree with that logic. If your anchors deliver standard star-level production, your team simply lands right where expected. It is naturally difficult for those elite options to punch above their weight in a way that truly breaks a league.
But Nico Collins could be the ultimate exception in 2026.
Should You Draft Nico Collins in Fantasy Football?
Collins’ Redraft Fantasy Football Value
Entering his age-27 season, Collins is an unquestioned WR1 at the NFL level. He has cleared 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons, hauling in 21 touchdowns over that stretch despite missing nine games along the way.
Put simply: he is elite. While that might seem obvious, establishing his baseline efficiency is a necessary first step before diving into his massive ceiling case.
PPR Points Over Expectation: 1st
Targets Per Route Run: 2nd
Red Zone Target Rate: 4th
These rankings isolate wide receivers with at least 250 targets over the past three seasons. Within that elite sample, Collins is the only player to average at least 12.0 air yards per target and 5.0 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception.
To pull up a chair at the absolute top tier of the position, a receiver must be a complete, well-rounded threat capable of producing at every level of the field. Collins checks every single box.
His late second-round ADP is slightly depressed by a history of minor injuries and lingering concerns over C.J. Stroud’s ultimate ceiling. Personally, I am far more willing to gamble on injury risk at the end of Round 2 than I am with a Round 1 option like Christian McCaffrey.
But are those Stroud concerns even fair?
C.J. Stroud when throwing past the sticks:
2024: 75.6 passer rating
2025: 95.5 passer rating
Stroud was so spectacular as a rookie that the public set an unsustainably high bar for his encore. While he might not be a generational game-breaker just yet, look at the landscape: Sam Darnold, Michael Penix Jr./Kirk Cousins, and Tyler Shough all supported top-10 fantasy wide receivers in 2025.
Stroud doesn’t need to be Patrick Mahomes to sustain Collins, especially since Collins won’t be starved for targets. I like Tank Dell more than most, but he isn’t built to be a true volume hog. While second-year options like Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel will likely take a step forward, their growth won’t threaten Collins’ alpha status.
Consider the environment Collins just succeeded in: the 2025 Texans had a highly flawed offensive profile. They struggled heavily on the ground (29th in yards per carry) and rarely extended drives into scoring territory (18th in red zone trips). Despite those massive roadblocks, Collins was the overall WR8 from Weeks 3–15.
He is being drafted right around that baseline floor this season, often slipping to the back half of the second round. If you open your draft with a Tier 1 running back, pairing them with an elite weapon like Collins in Round 2 feels like highway robbery.
Also Read: Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: How to Win Your League After Selecting Bijan Robinson First Overall
Collins’ Dynasty Fantasy Football Value
We can debate where Collins ranks in terms of pure, vacuum-sealed talent, but context is king in dynasty formats. Our business is securing raw production, and fantasy scoring is often a direct product of a player’s structural environment.
Puka Nacua might boast a slightly higher talent grade, but what does his quarterback situation look like beyond 2026? The same question applies to Drake London. And while Tyler Shough put together an encouraging season, no one is picking him over Stroud as a long-term passing anchor.
The point isn’t that Collins is the definitive WR1 overall; it’s that he belongs firmly in that tier, making him noticeably undervalued in the current market.
This is an All-World talent whose prime aligns perfectly with a young quarterback on the right side of the age curve. Wide receivers are the lifeblood of sustained dynasty success, and you are unlikely to find a lower buy-in window for an elite asset like Collins from here on out.
Dynasty football rewards the intersection of skill and timing. Collins brings the elite skill, and right now, the market is handing you the perfect timing window.
Go execute.
If you are ready to make a move for Houston’s alpha, our FREE Trade Analyzer can help you construct a deal that your league mates can’t turn down.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network .
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