RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Democrats are increasingly competitive in their bid to reclaim control of the Senate in the November midterm elections, according to a series of recent Fox News polls showing the party's nominees narrowly ahead in several key battlegrounds that would be critical to securing a majority.
While Republicans are ahead in Michigan, a Democratic-held seat, Fox News polls show Democratic candidates leading in six other battleground seats: Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Maine. Those gains would be enough to overcome a loss in Michigan and still deliver a Democratic majority if the party has a net gain of four seats on November 3.
Strategists caution, however, that several of those states have leaned Republican in recent federal and state elections and that polls are not indicators of election results.
Still, the overall Senate landscape remains challenging for Democrats, and more recent polling in several key races has painted a more favorable picture for Republicans, who enter the cycle with a 53-47 majority.
Many of the states where Democrats currently hold leads have voted Republican in recent presidential elections, but Democrats believe that President Donald Trump's slipping approval rating and ongoing war with Iran, among other policy priorities, could help their campaigns.
Although Fox News is often seen as favoring Republican viewpoints, its polling arm is generally well regarded by political observers across the spectrum and has ranked among the nation's more accurate pollsters.
Senator Jon Ossoff, a Georgia Democrat, is taking on Republican Mike Collins in one of the most closely watched races this cycle.
Ossoff was elected in January 2021, defeating Republican incumbent David Perdue in a closely watched runoff election. His victory, along with that of fellow Democrat Raphael Warnock, marked a historic shift in Georgia’s political landscape, long considered a Republican stronghold.
Collins has represented Georgia's 10th Congressional District in the House since 2023. Trump endorsed him in the primary run-off on June 16, writing in part, in a Truth Social post: “Mike is strongly supported by the most Highly Respected MAGA Patriots in Georgia and beyond, and many Republicans in the U.S. House and Senate — He is a WARRIOR and WINNER!”
Georgia has become a battleground in recent election cycles. Trump carried the state by about 2 percentage points in 2024 after Joe Biden narrowly won it in 2020, marking the first Democratic presidential victory there since 1992. Republicans continue to hold the governor's office, while Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats, highlighting the state's competitive political landscape.
The poll found Ossoff with a 58 percent favorability rating and Collins with 44 percent, both ahead of Trump's 42 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The University of Virginia's Center for Politics shifted Georgia's Senate race from “lean Democratic” to “likely Democratic” in its latest Crystal Ball ratings last month.
Recent public polling has generally shown Ossoff with a mid-to-high single-digit lead.
Newsweek has reached out to the Ossoff and Collins campaigns for comment via email on Friday.
The North Carolina Senate race between Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley is expected to be one of the most competitive of the midterms, with Democrats viewing it as one of their top flip opportunities. The state has frequently produced ticket-splitting outcomes , with voters supporting candidates from both parties in statewide and federal contests.
North Carolina is an electoral battleground that backed Trump by about 3 points in 2024. Two-term Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced he was retiring at the end of his term, leaving vacant—and vulnerable—a battleground seat.
Democrats believe Cooper, a two-term governor, is a strong candidate who can flip the seat in a favorable national environment, fueled by Trump’s declining national approval rating. Republicans, however, note that most polling still shows Cooper below 50 percent support and that the state has favored their candidates in recent federal elections.
A July Fox News poll of 1,005 North Carolina registered voters found Cooper with a 9-point lead, 53 percent to Whatley’s 44 percent, with about 2 percent undecided.
The poll found Cooper with a 54 percent favorability rating and Whatley and Trump both at 40 percent.
The poll was conducted July 23-27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as a “Lean Democrat.” Other recent polling has shown Cooper, who benefits from high name recognition, with a lead.
A New York Times and Siena poll, which surveyed 601 likely voters June 15-27, showed Cooper with a 7-point lead at 50 percent support to Whatley’s 43 percent.
Newsweek has reached out to the Cooper and Whatley campaigns for comment via email on Friday.
Republican Senator Jon Husted is facing off former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Brown, who lost his reelection bid in 2024, is seeking a comeback in a special election against Husted, who was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
Trump carried the state by about 11 percentage points in 2024, an improvement on his 2020 and 2016 performances, when he won by about 8 points in each. But Ohio was viewed as more competitive for Democrats not long before. President Barack Obama narrowly carried Ohio in 2008 and 2012. It has shifted as Trump performed well among the state’s working-class voters.
Ohio has been competitive in some recent elections. Brown won reelection in 2018, then lost in 2024 by fewer than 4 percentage points. Democrats hope their candidates can ...
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