RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Republican Michael Whatley is within striking distance of former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in the race for North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to a new High Point University poll released Friday.
The race is for the seat currently held by Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who is not seeking reelection. Cooper, who served as North Carolina governor from 2017 through 2024, is seeking a return to elected office, while Whatley is the former chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) and the North Carolina Republican Party.
Jeff Allen, Cooper for North Carolina campaign manager, told Newsweek via email on Friday when asked about the new poll, "Roy Cooper has spent his career putting North Carolinians first, while Washington, D.C., insider Michael Whatley spent his delivering for billionaires and special interests at the expense of the middle class. A Democrat has not won statewide federal office in North Carolina in nearly two decades and we know this race will be very close, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate."
Newsweek also reached out to Whatley's campaign via email on Friday for comment.
Republicans in the Senate hold a 53-45 majority—excluding independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats—and Democrats view flipping the seat as a potential pathway to taking control of the upper chamber.
Midterm elections are also commonly seen as a measure of public approval for the current president too, and the president's party has traditionally lost seats during these elections. Trump has backed Whatley in the race, adding another layer of potential intensity.
The contest is viewed as one of the key Senate races of the 2026 midterms, with the outcome potentially affecting control of the chamber. The Cook Political Report has the race slated as Lean Democrat.
The poll showed that among likely voters, Cooper leads Whatley 50 percent to 45 percent, a 5-point advantage that falls within the poll’s 5.2-percentage-point credibility interval. The poll shows that 3 percent are unsure or would not vote and 3 percent would pick someone else or another party. The survey of 800 self-identified registered voters, including 660 likely voters, was conducted August 3-12.
The poll marks a closer contest than some recent surveys have suggested. Among all self-identified registered voters, Cooper leads Whatley 48 percent to 41 percent, with 8 percent unsure or saying they would not vote and 4 percent saying they would pick someone else or another party. The HPU poll gives that group a 4.3-percentage-point credibility interval.
"But having said all that," Reeher added, "a smallish shift is not surprising, given the recent unpopularity of the Iran War, and persistent inflation and interest rate concerns. It’s still anyone’s race, even though I agree with Cook that it looks like it’s leaning toward the Dems. And Cooper may not have as much of the negativity associated with the Democratic brand as some other candidates."
D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, also told Newsweek via email on Friday: "The tightening of the North Carolina race makes sense because of the name-recognition advantage Roy Cooper enjoyed going into the contest. Likely voters knew him and many knew they were ready to support him. Fewer voters knew Michael Whatley, reporting neither a favorable nor an unfavorable opinion of him.
"It makes sense that as the race gained more attention, the sort of people who typically vote Republican would be returning to the fold, leaving fewer likely voters still unsure of what they'll do. That's the educational function that election season performs. Once Whatley finishes picking up the voters who always should have been his, though, persuading the remainder will become just as hard for him as it is for Cooper," Voss concluded.
The HPU poll points to a challenging political environment for Republicans in the state. Among likely voters, 59 percent say the country is on the wrong track, compared with 36 percent who say it is headed in the right direction.
Trump won the swing state in the 2024 presidential election versus former Vice President Kamala Harris by 3.3 percent.
Other recent polling has generally shown Cooper with a larger advantage.
An Elon University poll released earlier this month found Cooper ahead of Whatley 53 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. The poll surveyed 800 North Carolina adults from July 23 to July 31, 2026, and has a margin of error of 5.6 percent for likely voters.
A Carolina Journal Poll shows Cooper leading with 51.5 percent to Whatley's 39 percent. The survey, conducted by Harper Polling, was from August 9 to August 10, 2026, and has a margin of error of 4 percent.
Neither campaign has published a public calendar of events for the upcoming week; however, here's what's expected:
Both campaigns appear to be ramping up in-person events as the November 3 election approaches and recent polling continues to show a competitive race.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gray R. Thomas
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