RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. President Donald Trump 's escalating trade fight with Canada has placed him in conflict with one of the Republican Party's most dependable financial backers, the nation's home builders.
The White House on July 20 signed three proclamations imposing 50 percent tariffs on certain Canadian imports under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, the first time any president has invoked the authority. The measures cover products including wine, hockey sticks and cement, and apply whether or not a good qualifies under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
The proclamations touch roughly $20 billion in annual imports and take effect August 19.
Four days later, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) told its members the action would deepen uncertainty over building material supply chains and pricing, singling out cement, plywood and furniture. The association said it continues to press the administration to exempt building materials from its trade strategy and to avoid new barriers that could worsen the housing crisis.
"Recent tariff developments could create more uncertainty for home builders over building material supply chains and pricing," the NAHB wrote in a blog post on Friday.
The NAHB is not a marginal critic. In the 2024 election cycle, the association's political action committee directed $1,664,412 to Republican congressional candidates, or 80.8 percent of its candidate giving, compared with $393,099 to Democrats, according to OpenSecrets. The association contributed $3,320,075 overall and reported $3,450,000 in lobbying that year.
Its PAC, known as BUILD-PAC, backs what the association calls housing-friendly candidates, and the group is consistently ranked among Washington's top lobbying operations.
The association has spent more than a year asking Trump to carve construction inputs out of his tariffs. In February it worked with Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen and Delaware Senator Chris Coons, both Democrats, on the Housing Tariff Exclusion Act, which would automatically exempt many home building materials from current and future tariffs.
"Roughly 60 percent of builders have already seen cost increases due to tariffs," association chairman Bill Owens, a homebuilder from Worthington, Ohio, said at the time. Association survey data put the typical cost effect of tariff actions at $10,900 per home.
Canada is central to the industry's supply chain. It accounts for roughly 85 percent of U.S. softwood lumber imports and nearly a quarter of available domestic supply. The July 20 proclamations do not disturb existing duties on softwood lumber, steel, aluminum and copper, and the Commerce Department is poised to cut combined antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood from about 35 percent to 25 percent in mid-August, the association said.
The dispute lands as builder sentiment sits near post-recession lows. The association's index with Wells Fargo fell two points to 34 in July and has remained below 40 for 15 consecutive months, the longest such stretch since 2012.
"Many potential buyers remain on the sidelines as they wait for lower mortgage rates," Owens said.
Politico reported that people close to the White House worry the levies undercut Republican messaging on costs heading into the November midterms. "Any conversation about tariffs, unless it's reducing them, is a bad conversation for Republicans ," one of them said, speaking anonymously to discuss internal deliberations.
The White House says the tariffs answer Canadian discrimination against American cars, alcohol and dairy, and are meant to level the playing field for U.S. exporters.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called the measures a direct violation of the North American trade pact. "This trade dispute has raised costs for families, particularly in the U.S.," he said in a statement. Carney said days later that he and Trump had agreed to intensify negotiations in the coming weeks.
The 30-day delay before the tariffs bite leaves room for a deal. It also leaves the builders' lobby three weeks to persuade an administration it helped elect.
A July Washington Post /ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 65 percent of adults disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy , and 66 percent call groceries "unaffordable." A separate Pew-based survey found that 28 percent of Republican voters now say his economic policies have made things worse, up from 18 percent in January.
Republican strategist Alex Patton doesn't see much room for the party to maneuver around any of it.
"This week's events just increase the headwinds facing GOP candidates across the nation," Patton told Newsweek .
Tariffs are a subtler problem. Republican voters still back them more than the country as a whole, but the coalition isn't solid. A February Pew survey put GOP approval of the tariff hikes at 71 percent, yet that falls to 43 percent among self-described non-MAGA Republicans, according to ABC News/ Washington Post /Ipsos polling. Even within the party, 47 percent said they expect the tariffs to make inflation worse.
"Affordability is affordability, and voters get frequent reminders of how affordable things are or are not, gas, food, electricity bill, etc.," Patton said.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jenni Fink and Sam Wilson .
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