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AIPROPX ReportNewsweek · 1h ago
Fox News Predicts Two Key GOP-Held Senate Seats Shifting Toward Democrats
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Democrats' chances of flipping two Republican-held Senate seats have improved, according to Fox News' latest electoral rankings, boosting the party's prospects of reclaiming control of the chamber in November.
The updated rankings shift the Senate races in Kansas and Texas , signaling a more competitive landscape in two states Democrats are eyeing in their path to secure a Senate majority.
Democrats face a difficult map in 2026, needing to gain four seats while defending their own incumbents. The party has pointed to voter concerns over the economy, the ongoing Iran war, and President Donald Trump’s slipping approval rating as potential opportunities to make inroads in traditionally Republican territory. Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate currently.
While Democrats have seen improved odds in Kansas and Texas, according to Fox News, the party has lost ground in Michigan , according to the same forecast, which moved the race from "Lean Democrat " to "Toss Up."
The competing shifts highlight the fluid nature of the battle for Senate control, with both parties facing increasingly competitive races across the map as the November election approaches.
Alex Patton, a Republican political consultant, owner of Ozean Media, and political pollster, told Newsweek in an email that the recent forecasts indicate “Republicans are in a worse position,” adding that “economic conditions combined with deteriorating Presidential approval numbers are moving from a headwind to a tropical storm warning, approaching hurricane watch status.”
Newsweek has reached out to the campaigns in Texas, Kansas, and Michigan for comment via email on Tuesday.
A series of high-profile primaries in recent months have reshaped the map, elevating new candidates and prompting several major election forecasters to revisit their ratings.
In some states, progressive candidates emerged victorious, including former Michigan health official Abdul El-Sayed, who won the Democratic nomination against Representative Haley Stevens earlier this month. Elsewhere, establishment-backed candidates have prevailed.
Candidate shakeups have also altered the Senate map recently. In Texas, Ken Paxton's primary defeat of Senator John Cornyn heightened uncertainty in a race once seen as a more reliable Republican hold. In Alaska, Republicans have raised concerns that a candidate sharing Senator Dan Sullivan's name could complicate the incumbent's reelection bid, while in Maine, Democrat Graham Platner exited the race following controversy surrounding his campaign.
With fewer than 100 days until Election Day, candidates are ramping up their efforts to mobilize voters in what is expected to be a closely watched fight for control of the Senate.
For Matt Klink, owner and president of Klink Campaigns and a Republican strategist, "Candidate quality is deciding toss-ups more than the national political environment," he told Newsweek.
On Texas, he said that "[Ken] Paxton's fraud indictment, his impeachment trial, and a divorce filing amid affair allegations make Texas as much a referendum on him as on his party. But James Talarico is still very much the underdog given Texas' solid red bent.
For Michigan, he said the race will be determined by turnout. "El-Sayed has to rebuild Black voter support in Detroit that's running well behind 2020 levels. Mike Rogers can't afford a repeat of the late Democratic surge that beat him in 2024," he added.
The GOP 's decadeslong hold on Texas statewide offices will be tested in November, with the Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico nearly deadlocked in polls .
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, making it one of the nation's longest-running Republican strongholds. Democrats have repeatedly targeted the state as demographic shifts and population growth have reshaped its electorate, but they have fallen short in a series of closely watched campaigns, including Beto O'Rourke's 2018 Senate bid against Ted Cruz.
Fox News updated its Senate ratings to move Texas into the "toss up" column, joining competitive races in Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Maine and Alaska. However, The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rate the race as “leans Republican.”
Surveys show both Paxton, who is endorsed by Trump, and Talarico, who has served as a state representative since 2018, holding narrow leads at different points in the campaign. The matchup comes after Paxton defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary in late May.
A Fox News poll of 1,006 registered Texas voters found that 51 percent back Talarico and 48 percent Paxton, with 1 percent undecided. The survey was conducted July 23-27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
However, polls appear to flip-flop on who is leading, as a recent Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of 1,000 likely Texas voters puts the Senate race in a near dead heat, with 47 percent backing Paxton and 46 percent supporting Talarico.
About 5 percent are undecided and 2 percent back a different candidate. The poll was conducted August 9-11 and had a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
RealClearPolling aggregate average puts Talarico up by 1.2 percentage points, 46 percent to Paxton’s 44.8 percent. Polls go back and forth on who leads in the Lone Star state, often with statistical leads within the margin of error.
Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton has emerged as one of the party's strongest fundraisers in Kansas in recent years, but the path to unseating Republican Senator Roger Marshall remains difficult in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in nearly a century.
Since then, Republicans have maintained an uninterrupt...
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