RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The trade deadline is around the corner , and with each passing day, the odds of a Tigers turnaround grow ever smaller. Detroit won Tuesday against Baltimore to move within 3.5 games of a wild-card spot but then blew a 7-0 lead to lose in extra innings Wednesday in what might’ve been Skubal’s final outing with Detroit . Unless the Tigers can conjure a hot streak before Monday’s trade deadline, the club might need to do the painful, necessary thing and trade back-to-back Cy Young and impending free agent Tarik Skubal.
Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris doesn’t have to pull the trigger on any deal until the last second and is likely to wait out the schedule to see if his team makes things interesting. But you better believe that he and his inner circle are already sketching out potential trade packages for the world-beating southpaw.
We don’t know exactly what Harris and Co. would want in a deal, but we can safely assume the Tigers wouldn’t be seeking a return built around low-level minor leaguers. This team intends to be competitive in 2027. That means high-level prospects or controllable, young big leaguers, particularly young arms.
With all that in mind, let’s roll through the other 29 ballclubs and evaluate how likely each one is as a Skubal landing spot.
Out of it
Mets, Giants, Rockies, Athletics, Angels, Royals, Reds, Blue Jays
This octet represents the bottom eight in terms of playoff odds , and all are mired in single digits. All should be selling or, at the very least, not buying. It’s more likely that Skubal retires from baseball to pursue a career in quidditch than that he pitches for any of these clubs in 2026.
Middle grounders who won’t
Marlins, Nationals, Twins, Cardinals
Although Miami, Washington, Minnesota and St. Louis are all hovering close to playoff spots , the industry expects all four to adopt a thread-the-needle approach to this deadline . A little buying, a little selling, nothing Earth-shattering. That doesn’t sound very Skubal-y.
The team the Tigers probably wouldn’t send him to
Guardians
Besides the fact that swinging a blockbuster for the market’s top player isn’t exactly Cleveland’s M.O., it’s difficult to envision Detroit sending Skubal to such a significant in-division rival, even if for only a few months. Optics matter, at least a little.
Contenders who don’t “need” starting pitching
Red Sox, Yankees, Mariners, Pirates
It’s ridiculous to assert that a team couldn’t use Skubal; that’s blatantly untrue. The back-to-back Cy Young would probably start Game 1 of a playoff series for every single team in baseball. But these four teams have rotations replete with depth and frontline talent and would be better served focusing their attention and resources elsewhere.
Boston already needs to replace its initial deadline addition, infielder Curtis Mead, after the former National went on the IL after one game due to a fractured wrist . The Sox are looking for bats. The same is true for the Judge-less Yankees, who are also currently without Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton. Seattle seems primed to deal from its rotation surplus — maybe Emerson Hancock, maybe Luis Castillo — not add to it. The Pirates are desperate for anything resembling a viable late-inning reliever. Maybe they get Skubal to pitch the ninth?
The team that shouldn’t
White Sox
You never want to advocate passivity, but the White Sox should not mortgage their future for two months of Skubal. Nor will they. Because while this season has been a wonderful surprise for the Sox, their window probably doesn’t open in earnest until 2027. That’s true even if they sneak into October this year. Chicago should and will be aggressive to add pitching before the deadline, but that likely comes in the form of a controllable arm such as the Mariners’ Hancock, Angels’ Reid Detmers, Mets’ Will Warren or Twins’ Joe Ryan .
Buyers who will probably get outbid
Phillies, Astros, Padres, Rangers, Orioles, Diamondbacks
It’s not that these teams, in a vacuum, couldn’t craft a worthy package. It’s that, when push comes to shove, they’ll almost certainly be outbid by an organization with a deeper farm or more compelling controllable assets. Crucially, none of these clubs has the type of young, big-league-level starting pitcher the Tigers would likely want back as part of the haul.
Could the Phillies use Skubal? Sure. Could they maybe build something alluring around Andrew Painter? Maybe. Is that the best assortment of players Scott Harris and Co. could acquire? Absolutely not. The win-now-or-die Astros and Padres also have little to offer; their farm systems are currently ranked 29th and 30th by FanGraphs.
Texas could, in theory, do something around top-15 prospect Sebastian Walcott. But the promising Bahamian shortstop has hardly played this season after undergoing elbow surgery, which would make an evaluation particularly difficult. Besides, unless Detroit absolutely adores Kumar Rocker and/or Jack Leiter, the Rangers don’t have that requisite young MLB arm.
Arizona has a bevy of interesting young position players — Tommy Troy, Ryan Waldschmidt, Tim Tawa — but very little to offer in terms of arms. That’s also the case for Baltimore, with all due respect to rookie Brandon Young.
The team that really, really should but might not be able to
Cubs
No team in baseball could use Skubal more than Chicago. The Cubs have a dangerous lineup, a pack of reliable, if unspectacular, starters and the best team defense in the sport. Pitching injuries have decimated the top of this rotation all season, with Edward Cabrera, Cade Horton, Ben Brown and Justin Steele currently on the IL. Skubal would give this team the horse it needs to actually make some noise in October.
But there’s one crucial impediment to this lofty dream: Chicago’s undermanned farm system skews toward bats. Their best pitching prospect, Jaxon Wiggins, missed the start of this season due to an elbow issue and has been hor...
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