RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Time moves at such a speed now that we need to be reminded of just how far-fetched it was to think at this time a year ago that Indiana would win the National Championship.
The Hoosiers had made the first 12-team College Football Playoff, so it's not like they were completely off the radar. However, the way we do things at THE WINDOW — using the betting market to estimate a team's perceived power rating, the Hoosiers were rated well-behind the national contenders, and 12 point-spread points behind much-ballyhooed Penn State, last August.
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Indiana carried an estimated market rating (EMR) in the high-60s into last season, which would be like Illinois (68 of out 100) going on to win the national title this year. Meanwhile, Penn State's fall from a preseason perch of a rating in the high-80s (earned by being a play away from the title game in January 2025), would be like if a Big Ten powerhouse, like, say, Indiana, collapsed this season.
A year ago, you didn't need to know how far Indiana would rise or Penn State would fall, you just needed to be able to see that there was room towards the top or bottom of their market rating, and being directionally correct would have led to betting success.
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Who wins the Big Ten?
Indiana (+300) has effectively swapped spots with Penn State (20-1) in the Big Ten hierarchy, joining Ohio State (+190) and Oregon (+275) atop the conference oddsboard.
Ohio State's issue as the favorite is that their two losses to close last season came when their offensive line was dominated by well-coached fronts with a smattering of pro-ready talent (Indiana and Miami).
The defensive front for Oregon (Week 10) might be its strength, USC's (Week 9) could be good and one win over an inept Michigan (Week 13) offense shouldn't wipe clean how frequently Ryan Day's group has been stood up in the trenches by the Wolverines. Plus, Kyle Whittingham takes over to stabilize a messy situation in Ann Arbor, bringing offensive coordinator Jason Beck with him to turn Bryce Underwood into a potentially better version of Devon Dampier. The addition of Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator in Columbus doesn't scream efficiency either.
Under head coach Dan Lanning, the Ducks crush the teams they're supposed to, but if they face an eventual national title game participant, they're often hunted down (1-5). From a roster construction standpoint, this is supposed to be the year, and while Lanning lost both his coordinators, he's promoted from within — a nod to the continuity that we'll see from the roster.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JULY 28: Head coach Matt Campbell of the Penn State Nittany Lions speaks to the media during the 2026 Big Ten Football Media Days at Hilton Chicago on July 28, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) Justin Casterline via Getty Images
The second tier has USC, Michigan and Penn State. The first two have plenty of talent to sneak up a level, but a gauntlet of a conference schedule, while Penn State has mostly thrown their jerseys on the shoulders of last year's Iowa State team which ended the year with an EMR of around 60 (of out 100). In State College, that same team is rated in the high-70s?
The Nittany Lions avoid all of the top-tier teams, and could go 8-1 without pulling off a wild upset, setting up a possible situation where they make the Big Ten title game, but are massive underdogs.
As for the Trojans, we'll be looking for the best way to bet on things going really well in L.A., but there's too many potholes on the way to a conference title to even try the long-shot route here.
Last season, the Huskies won the games they were supposed to, and lost those they were supposed to, so a Week 7 trip to Nebraska should be a pick-em game that will decide whether the Huskies go over their win total. That could be the case for the Huskers' total as well. However, Matt Rhule's supposed Year 3 breakthrough didn't break through last season, so if we want to fade Nebraska, we can just wait until Halloween to do it.
Along the same lines, there's a good chance our "season-long" position on Minnesota will be in the form of a single-game bet in Week 2, when the Golden Gophers host Mississippi State, and are hopefully lined under a field goal at home in their lone matchup with a SEC team. With a second season for the Drake Lindsey-Darius Taylor backfield, and P.J. Fleck retaining the sixth-most returning production nationally, they should get bowl-eligible. However, the betting market agrees, juicing Minnesota to the over against a potentially tough schedule.
UCLA and Wisconsin are two of the most interesting mid-pack teams in the Big Ten this season, but another potential pick-em Week 7 matchup makes backing either to go over their win total a tough bet to pull the trigger on.
The Bruins' key incumbent is quarterback Nico Iamaleava, as Bob Chesney is surrounding him with his favorite players from James Madison — a team that ended last season with a market rating of 65 (higher than UCLA's right now). On the flip side, Wisconsin kept Luke Fickell, and quarterback-transfer Colton Joseph is the Badgers' big addition, which should be enough to make them better than the slightly above-average rating they finished with the last two seasons, leaving some upward mobility in Madison as well.
Despite back-to-back 4-8 seasons, we're going to be looking for spots to bet on Maryland during the season, instead of trusting Mike Locksley's group to get to bowl-eligibility at over 5.5 wins. Last year was the developmental season for Malik Washington, and the Terrapins have the conference's most returning production from a group that was rated by some ...
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