RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The NFL’s Saturday preseason slate brings seven more games and a much wider range of coaching plans. There are teams playing their starting quarterbacks. Others are sitting nearly everyone who matters. Dealer’s choice, right?
That decision-making gap is where the betting value lives this weekend. Below is what each head coach has confirmed, plus where the odds stand and how I am betting each game.
More : NFL preseason Week 1 betting guide: Thursday & Friday games
Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants (MIN -2.5, o/u 41.5, -135/+114)
The Kyler Murray era with the Minnesota Vikings will kick off on Saturday in Week 1 of the preseason. Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell named Kyler Murray the starting quarterback on Tuesday. Murray will play alongside the majority of the starters, which is a change from how O’Connell has handled past preseason openers. Justin Jefferson will join the broadcast during the third quarter.
New York Giants head coach John Harbaugh would not say whether Jaxson Dart and the starters will play . Harbaugh pointed to the new offense and Dart’s limited experience as reasons the work matters. Paulson Adebo, John Michael Schmitz Jr. and Jalin Hyatt did not practice Thursday.
Picks: MIN -2.5, u41.5, MIN -135
Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo Bills (CAR +3, o/u 38.5, +136/-162)
Running back James Cook III (4) and the Buffalo Bills will play for the first time in Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters) Buffalo Bills head coach Joe Brady said everyone healthy will play, including Josh Allen . It will be Allen’s first preseason action since August 2024. This is also the first game at the new Highmark Stadium. Buffalo is switching to a 3-4 defense under first-year coordinator Jim Leonhard and expects at least five new starters.
Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales said his starters will play somewhere between 10 and 20 plays. Quarterback Bryce Young is in that group. Carolina already played the Hall of Fame Game against Arizona.
Picks: BUF -3, o38.5, BUF -162
Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears (CLE -3, o/u 40.5, -180/+150)
Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent (17) practices against the New Orleans Saints before the game at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images Bears head coach Ben Johnson will sit a number of starters on both sides of the ball. Caleb Williams is among them. Johnson said he does not need to see Williams in the preseason because he watches him every day in practice. Tyson Bagent starts and could play most of the first half.
Cleveland Browns head coach Todd Monken will start Deshaun Watson for the entire first half, including a planned two-minute drill. Shedeur Sanders takes the third quarter. Dillon Gabriel and rookie Taylen Green handle the rest. The roles flip on Aug. 22.
Picks: CLE -3, o40.5, CLE -180
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints (JAX +2.5, o/u 35.5, +110/-130)
New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler (2) warms up prior to a game against the Atlanta Falcons at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said Trevor Lawrence and the other established starters will sit . Carter Bradley is expected to get significant playing time. Nick Mullens and Joey Aguilar are the other quarterbacks available.
New Orleans Saints head coach Kellen Moore expects most of his starters to sit as well. The two teams held a joint practice Thursday in Metairie, which serves as the game work for both first units. Spencer Rattler has taken second-team reps in camp, and Zach Wilson has worked with the third team.
Picks: JAX +2.5, u35.5, NO -130
Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs (LAR +2.5, o/u 36.5, +114/-135)
Rams quarterback Stetson Bennett IV (13) throws the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during a joint practice at the Rams Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters) Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Patrick Mahomes will not start or play . Mahomes is eight months removed from a torn ACL and LCL and is targeting the Sept. 14 opener against Denver. Justin Fields, Garrett Nussmeier and Chris Oladokun will split the game.
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay named Stetson Bennett IV the starter , with first-round rookie Ty Simpson also playing. Matthew Stafford will not suit up. Offensive coordinator Nathan Scheelhaase will call the plays.
Picks: LAR +2.5, u36.5, KC -135
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens (PHI -3.5, o/u 37.5, -185/+154)
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) warms up before the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images Baltimore Ravens first-year head coach Jesse Minter said Lamar Jackson and the established starters will not play . Baltimore is installing a new system under offensive coordinator Declan Doyle.
Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has not committed to a plan and would not name a starting quarterback. Sirianni said the staff is still thinking through it, and hopefully a firm decision is coming soon. Andy Dalton and Tanner McKee are listed together as the backup on the first unofficial depth chart. Saturday is the first look at new Eagles offensive coordinator Sean Mannion’s system.
Picks: BAL +3.5, u37.5, BAL +154
Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks (DAL +3, o/u 38.5, +130/-155)
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) looks for an open receiver as New York Giants linebacker Abdul Carter (51) runs towards him, Sunday, January 4, 2026, in East Rutherford. Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer said the team will not play a lot of its starters during the preseason. He confirmed first-round picks Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence will play some snaps, though probably not many. Third-round rookie linebacker Jaishawn Barham is close to returning ...
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