RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. North Carolina Republican Laurie Buckhout, who is running to flip a Democratic-held congressional district, was dealt a fine and suspension by Kalshi after purchasing contracts to trade on her own race.
Prediction markets have skyrocketed in popularity over the past few years . These markets allow individuals to purchase contracts related to current events, including elections . Traders can purchase contracts based on who they believe will win any given election. The rise of these markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, has fueled concerns around government ethics, as politicians have been caught engaging in insider trading in the past .
Kalshi published a notice of settlement of disciplinary action on Monday stating that Buckhout, an Army veteran running for Congress in North Carolina’s 1st District, violated Rule 5.17(z). That rule prohibits anyone who is a “decision maker” or “has any influence” on the outcome of an underlying event from trading on that event.
She purchased less than $1,000 worth of contracts related to her own candidacy, according to the settlement. She must now pay a $2,589.96 fine and has been suspended from Kalshi for three years.
“The Compliance Department found that Buckhout announced her candidacy for public office and was added as a market option for a contract on a North Carolina Congressional election,” the filing reads. “As a candidate, Buckhout qualified as a direct decision maker for the contract and therefore had direct influence on the outcome of the Underlying event.”
Kalshi wrote in the filing that Buckhout “cooperated with the inquiry into this trading activity and has agreed to resolve this matter by accepting their conclusions, paying a financial penalty, and agreeing to a restriction from trading on the exchange.”
Buckhout addressed the report in a statement to Newsweek on Monday.
“I bet on myself. Literally. It was a dumb mistake, and as soon as I learned there was an issue, I worked to make it right. Safe to say my career as a Kalshi trader was short-lived,” she wrote.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Madison Andrus criticized Buckhout in a statement on Monday.
PDF Kalshi-Laurie-Buckhout.pdf . PDF Download “Looks like Laurie Buckhout is getting a jump-start on her insider trading aspirations. If Buckhout can’t be trusted to follow the most basic prediction market rules, there is no chance she can be trusted as an ethical representative for North Carolina families,” Andrus wrote.
Buckhout is running in a competitive district in northeastern North Carolina currently held by Democratic Representative Don Davis. The district was redrawn ahead of the midterms to give Republicans a stronger advantage in the district.
Under the new lines, it backed President Donald Trump by nearly 12 points. If Davis holds on, the district could become one of the more conservative to be held by a Democrat after the midterms .
Democrats believe the race is competitive despite the district’s conservative lean. Democrats view Davis as a moderate candidate they hope can win over more centrist Republicans. He won the current district against Buckhout even as it backed Trump in 2024.
The national environment is also expected to be more favorable toward Democrats amid Trump’s declining national approval rating, which has been driven down by voter backlash over the economy, inflation and the Iran war.
Independent polling on the race is limited, though some internal surveys from both parties point to a close race.
Davis was up in his internal poll conducted by GQR, leading Buckhout by 4 points, 45 percent to 41 percent. It surveyed 500 likely voters from June 22 to 28, 2026 and was first reported by Semafor.
A co/efficient poll, sponsored by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), showed Buckhout and Davis tied, each receiving support from 41 percent of respondents. Republicans were favored on the generic ballot by about 4 points, 46 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll.
It surveyed 842 likely voters from April 25 to 29, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.37 percentage points.
Forecasters expect the race to be competitive. The Cook Political Report rates the race as Leans Republican, but Sabato’s Crystal Ball considers it to be a toss-up after redistricting.
Other candidates have been suspended from Kalshi for insider trading in the past.
Earlier this year, Kalshi announced that Democrat Matt Klein, who lost a Democratic primary for Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, Mark Moran, an independent Senate candidate in Virginia and Ezekiel Enriquez, who lost a GOP primary for Texas’ 21st Congressional District had all been suspended .
Also on Monday, former Representative George Santos, a New York Republican, was permanently banned from Kalshi and fined $71,356 following a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) case tied to trades on his own attendance at President Donald Trump's State of the Union address.
Santos responded to the ban in a post to X.
“Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let's see how much longer you guys are around for,” he wrote.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gabe Whisnant and Geoffrey Rowland .
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