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AIPROPX ReportNewsweek · 2h ago
The President Who Cried Wolf: The Trouble With Trump’s Oman Threats
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. "If Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the s**t out of them," President Donald Trump told Fox News on Monday.
That language has become familiar when directed at Iran—but Oman, while causing trouble now and then, is a U.S. ally. Is this kind of thing effective? What are the consequences of throwing threats around like this, especially for a president with a recurring disconnect between rhetoric and reality? As we navigate the damaging and embarrassing Persian Gulf quagmire, it's time to talk more softly, but also more clearly.
Oman has spent decades perfecting a diplomatic trick. It has been a close friend of the United States, a partner of the Gulf monarchies, and a useful intermediary among them, while preserving enough independence to talk to people Washington cannot. It was the first Gulf country to openly receive an Israeli leader, Yitzhak Rabin, in 1994, yet has also not joined the Abraham Accords.
This balancing act, while annoying to many outsiders, has served Oman well, keeping the country stable and secure while giving successive U.S. administrations a diplomatic channel into Tehran. And Oman, under both longtime Sultan Qaboos and his successor, Sultan Haitham, was ultimately dependable.
That is what makes Oman's current behavior peculiar. Muscat is apparently discussing with Tehran a mechanism for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, vital for global energy supplies, that could give Iran a role in regulating maritime traffic and would seemingly involve payments by commercial vessels. The details remain fluid, and Oman may describe payments as service fees rather than tolls—a trick Iranian officials have already tried—but any version of this would upend global maritime trade.
Copycat actions would emerge at other chokepoints, not only the Bab el-Mandeb, which Iran's Houthi proxies have already messed with, but also the Bosporus , Strait of Malacca , Sunda Strait , the Strait of Gibraltar and more.
It simply cannot be allowed. Trump is right to be angry . The problem is that Trump has chosen to communicate that message in the most counterproductive way imaginable. His bluster once shocked; his threat that "an entire civilization will die" in Iran four months ago sounded berserk, but it was believed by some that he might be serious in seemingly telegraphing nuclear war .
But once such threats become commonplace and are accepted as bluster, they weaken America's position by making it look desperate. Iran's rulers clearly see it that way.
That is the problem with the boy who cried wolf, even when the wolf comes in the form of an American aircraft carrier. The United States actually does possess an enormous capacity for destruction, and everybody knows it. The question is whether the president is willing to use that power when doing so would carry political, economic and strategic costs.
The answer seems to generally be no. Threatening to bomb Oman, an American security partner that hosts U.S. military access and has spent decades serving as an American diplomatic channel to Tehran, sounds absurd. It makes you look unserious. Or in Trump's case, more unserious.
President Theodore Roosevelt famously advised presidents to “speak softly and carry a big stick." Trump certainly has a big stick, but by not speaking softly, his threats carry the perception of diminishing returns.
He is impetuous , bombastic and driven by immediate tactical needs. The so-called “madman theory” can work when adversaries believe that apparent irrationality comes with a willingness to take risks. That's where Trump generally fails. It’s the same effect that makes his promises over Greenland annexation, or even his references to Canada becoming the 51st state, less and less purposeful over time. He is already struggling with an Iranian regime that has failed to take the hint and collapse. Each new brash promise that isn’t delivered to the letter emboldens America’s opponents.
Oman has plenty of its own reasons to keep Hormuz open and plenty of reasons to preserve its relationship with America. Its economy depends heavily on energy and international commerce, and its security relationship with Washington is substantial. Oman was the first Persian Gulf state to grant the U.S. formal military access to its facilities, and the two countries have subsequently developed extensive defense cooperation.
Oman also has oil and gas reserves, a population of roughly five million and a standard of living that gives the Sultanate considerable independence. This is therefore not a poor country desperately looking for help.
That is how a powerful country should handle a partner whose behavior it considers unacceptable.
Bombing Oman would accomplish almost the opposite. It would destroy an important American relationship, threaten U.S. military access, undermine a valuable diplomatic channel to Iran and potentially convince Muscat that its future security requires closer accommodation with Tehran. It would transform an argument over shipping arrangements into a much larger geopolitical rupture. And it would make the U.S. look less like a confident superpower exercising leverage and more like an angry one demonstrating that it has run out of good ideas. That is why it is unlikely to happen, and why Trump’s threat is at risk of looking empty.
Washington should instead talk to Oman as a friend who has made a very serious mistake.
The message might be summarized very simply: America is a very good friend to have. America is also a formidable country to have as an adversary. Oman has been wise enough for decades to understand the difference.
That is what credible deterrence sounds like. Carry an actual big stick. Try not to use it. And never cry wolf.
Dan Perry is the former London-based Europe-Africa Editor and Cairo-based Middle East Editor of The A...
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