RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Normally, national champions aren't supposed to try to defend the belt without the head honcho. But these aren't normal times, and Dusty May is far from a normal coach. May became the first coach since Kansas ' Larry Brown in 1988 to win the national championship and leave college basketball when he chose to take the Dallas Mavericks gig and team up with the generational Cooper Flagg.
It's a move that 98% of coaches in the world would make, too, if given the opportunity.
Michigan is left to try and run it back without the architect. Top assistant Mike Boynton was promoted to head coach and handed a two-year deal. Michigan was able to retain its entire roster, except injured sixth man LJ Cason , who transferred to Miami .
Can Michigan really be a national championship contender again without May, three lottery picks and four more rotation players from one of college basketball's all-time dominant clubs?
One year at Michigan has done wonders for Cadeau's Q rating. Cadeau and Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr . are the best two passers in college basketball. The vision, the touch, the anticipation, the fearlessness. Cadeau has it all. That pass-first mentality should make all these Michigan newcomers settle in rather quickly because Cadeau spoon-feeds good looks routinely. Cadeau also has some nastiness that will be needed even more without Morez Johnson to set the tone for every single practice.
But there's more meat on the bone for Cadeau offensively. The 6-foot-1 guard answered questions about his jumper, but there's still some work to do inside the paint to become even more potent. Cadeau shot just 47% on layups and 36% on floaters last year. He has the touch and creativity to be way better on that front. If it clicks, there's All-American upside for a guy who brings it on defense, passes the cover off the rock and can drain more than enough 3s to keep defenses honest.
McKenney is one of the most obvious breakout picks on the board. The five-star freshman had to sit his turn behind three lottery picks, but the talent is still so evident. Now the opportunity is on tap. McKenney's minutes are about to spike. His usage rate is about to soar. He can be one of the Big Ten's best scorers because he does a little bit of everything. He can operate as an off-ball spacer who drills spot-up treys, attacks long closeouts and plays off the advantages that Cadeau creates. But there's more on-ball utility that Michigan will tap into with McKenney this winter, as long as he can clean up his decision-making. 24% of McKenney's pick-and-roll possessions ended in a turnover last season. That can't happen in Year 2.
McKenney is a safe bet to lead Michigan in scoring. He's an All-Big Ten talent, and McKenney will be on my preseason All-America ballot.
Five-star freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. is expected to play a major role for Michigan this year. The 6-foot-5, 190-pound wing is an extremely explosive athlete who brings it on the defensive end daily. I expect McCoy to earn the right to guard some of the best perimeter players in the Big Ten. McCoy should walk into 10 points a night without a play being run for him, purely off his athleticism and a motor that is always revving. Run the floor, and Cadeau will find you. Hit the offensive glass. Attack a closeout. Make the simple plays.
It starts to get really fun, really quickly with McCoy if the jumper pops. He shot just 30% from 3-point range and 56% at the charity stripe last season in EYBL. But everything else is there, especially on the defensive end of the floor.
Michigan believes JP Estrella has more in the tank than he showed last year in a Tennessee halfcourt offense that rarely created easy shots. The 6-foot-11 big man was a per-minute monster when he got real tick. Estrella rated in the 97th percentile in win shares, per CBB Analytics, and graded as one of the top offensive players in the portal for most models. That's a good hint of what's to come, but it still has to coalesce. Estrella has to improve his touch around the basket to become the best version of himself. He shot just 53% on 69 layups last season, including just a 42% mark as a roller in the ball-screen game. But that's fixable stuff.
Skilled bigs are everything in the college game, and Estrella is poised to be one of Michigan's nightly reliable sources of offense, especially if he can tap back into the skill he showed as a shooter in high school. I'd expect him to take far more than 10 triples next season, and he'll post a career-high assist rate at Michigan, too.
Thiam is all of 7-feet-2 with an enormous 7-6 wingspan. He will be asked to replicate the rim dominance that made Michigan's defense so nasty last season. Cincinnati had a top-10 defense when Thiam was on the floor, holding opponents to just 48% at the rim, which ranked third-best nationally, according to Hoop Explorer. Thiam can control the boards, protect the rim and move well enough on the perimeter to play multiple coverages defensively.
The best part about Thiam's game is that he can get so, so, so much better. Thiam's decision-making offensively was a little weird. He'd stop-and-pop for jumpers at awkward spots on the floor. He's capable of making 3s (38 treys in two years at a 29% clip), but making jumpers needs to be a cherry on top, not the primary part of his game. If Michigan can develop Thiam into an enforcer and eliminate some of the possessions where he just floats on the perimeter, he can be a terrifying two-way difference-maker who will be in the NBA in 2027.
Reed is shaping up to be a major X-Factor for Michigan. The 6-foot-10 forward fought back from a torn ACL only to suffer a torn Achilles. It's still iffy whether Reed will be full-go for Michigan's season opener in November, but the talented big man is expected to play in 2026-27. How effective will he be after another grueling rehab? TBD. But when he's played, Reed is so clearly an effective high-major big man who can play the 4 or the 5. He's...
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