RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesLOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 29, 2025: UCLA Bruins quarterback Nico Iamaleava (9) scampers for a first down against USC in the first half at the Coliseum on November 29, 2025 in Los Angeles, California.(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images) | Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Special thanks to Michael Hanna for joining me on this week’s podcast to discuss UCLA’s roster:
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UCLA hired Coach Chesney, the head coach at James Madison for the last two years, for the 2026 season. Chesney brought with him nearly his entire staff from JMU as well as a major part of the two-deep from the 2025 Dukes team, and after talking with Michael, I believe UCLA’s offensive and defensive schemes and gameplan philosophies will largely resemble JMU’s as well.
As it happens, I’ve recently been engaged in an extensive film review and analysis project of James Madison’s last several seasons going back to Chesney’s predecessor there, Curt Cignetti. The most relevant video documentation, podcast interview, and charting breakdown of Chesney’s team is in my analysis of JMU’s 2025 season in anticipation of Oregon’s first round playoff matchup last December. I will briefly re-introduce concepts from that article in this one as necessary, but for space reasons I won’t duplicate the far more detailed explanations here. I would encourage the interested reader to review that JMU analysis first.
Offense
UCLA returns starter #9 QB N. Iamaleava from last season . Like his 2024 season at Tennessee which I reviewed for another project, I thought he had more potential than his poor passer rating at 123.5 (more than a full standard deviation below FBS median) indicated. His throwing mechanics are solid and his arm strength is excellent, Michael and I agreed he just needs more work on accuracy and consistently throwing with touch. I don’t think it’s helped that he went from a shaky offensive line situation at Tennessee to a terrible one at UCLA and has virtually never had a clean pocket in which to operate.
To date, the biggest asset Iamaleava’s brought to the game has been his scrambling ability, which in my opinion resulted in wins or close defeats for perhaps half the games on UCLA’s schedule last year which otherwise would have been losses by multiple scores. Despite UCLA’s steadily declining situational passing efficiency rates across virtually every category for every season for going back to 2017 (an effect of the slow-motion train wreck that was Chip Kelly’s offensive line management and a switch in QB styles from 2022 through 2024), last year was a local high point in 3 rd & long conversion rates for the Bruins at 36%, coming pretty close to FBS median. The major driver of the leap was Iamaleava’s effective scrambles and improvised plays.
JMU’s 3 rd & long conversion rate was two standard deviations below median. The major thrust of my analysis of OC Kennedy’s offense and our discussion with the Purple Antics podcast last December was how deceptive the Dukes’ offense was – it presented all the hallmarks of an efficiency, ball-control, grinding approach, but in both play- and drive-based efficiency they were absolutely terrible at marching the field methodically, and worse, could not get out of trouble once they fell behind the chains. They were almost totally reliant on super-explosive plays to move the ball and score points, and ironically, defenses made this easier by crowding the line trying to stuff harmless efficiency plays.
All indications to me are that the structure of the offense and OC Kennedy’s playcalling philosophy are likely to be similar … but Iamaleava might help on both ends of the equation. He’s already shown the ability to salvage drives in 3 rd & long situations which were the biggest vulnerability for JMU last year and UCLA in the couple years prior, and he has a higher athletic ability to generate the super-explosives which Kennedy relies upon.
I didn’t get to see it very often, but it also strikes me that Iamaleava is a dangerous runner on designed carries. Excluding QB sacks and scrambles, Iamaleava only had 31 called run plays in 2025, and the majority were in short-yardage / goal-to-go situations, but his success rates were the best on the team at 58.1%. That’s in contrast to JMU’s starting QB in 2025, who was the second-leading rusher with about 75 designed carries. The guess between Michael and I is that 2026 will see a compromise on QB designed carries on standard downs between the two extremes, maybe three or four a game.
All of the backups except the starter’s younger brother #10 QB M. Iamaleava transferred out, including last year’s primary backup who started one game and large stretches of others, Luke Duncan. The younger Iamaleava is probably the primary backup in 2026, due to what Michael called “political” matters, though he allowed that experienced FCS transfer #14 QB Dieffenbach might go in for a short absence. I think it’s worth noting that the two brothers have fairly different builds and the younger is three inches shorter and 20 lbs lighter, though he redshirted last year so I’ve yet to see him play.
Running Backs
Chesney brought his primary running back #3 RB Knight to UCLA. He got far and away the most work of any skill player for the Dukes last year – 174 carries (and that’s with the QB getting 75 and backup RBs combining for over 100) prior to garbage time, plus 50 receptions out of the backfield.
Given how much of it went through Knight’s hands, the inefficiency of Kennedy’s offense and Knight’s mediocre success rates are impossible to disentangle statistically, but from watching tape I’m confident it wasn’t on Knight. Still, the most telling was the big split in Knight’s efficiency vs explosiveness scorces – 52.9% success given the down & distance as a ballcarrier and 50% as a passing target, which are basically rookie efficiency figures.
Knight’s chunk yardage rates are slightly below FBS median at about 13...
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