RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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In case you haven't heard, the 2026 MLB trade deadline is on Monday, so if you're holding a longshot ticket on something like Colorado catcher Hunter Goodman at +1500 (that's where he was in the spring) to lead the National League in homers this year, and he's traded at the deadline to an AL contender... well, you'd be out of luck. Right now, I do think Goodman is the only player in the top 10 in homers this year with a realistic shot of being traded by Monday afternoon.
Goodman's Rockies are home tonight and usually I try and find a home run prop bet from Coors Field, but nothing excites me with the Kansas City Royals in town and the winds blowing in. There is one matinee between the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field but really nothing jumps out at me there, either. That being said, it doesn't appear there are any major weather issues you should be aware of across MLB on Friday.
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Those who want to get into MLB betting , particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine , and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server , a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Last Friday, my home run picks were the Dodgers ' Kyle Tucker and Royals' Salvador Perez . I'm getting hot on these plays as Tucker did go yard at +700 against the New York Mets , my biggest price hit of the season. Perez was not able to hit one out in Detroit but did have a double. As usual, all of my HR plays mean I like Over 1.5 total bases for those players even better.
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Well, playing a Dodgers star in this article worked last Friday so let's go right back to that well with former AL MVP Mookie Betts as Los Angeles hosts Boston with a 10:10 ET first pitch in a possible World Series preview. That would have sounded laughable a couple of weeks ago, but the Red Sox have gotten hot and can definitely win the weak American League now.
I'd imagine that anytime Betts faces the Red Sox that he's a bit more fired up after that incredibly lopsided salary dump trade that saw Boston ship him to Los Angeles in February 2020 for the low, low price of Alex Verdugo , Jeter Downs and Connor Wong . If you tried that trade in Fantasy baseball, your commissioner would reject it. Many Red Sox fans still are angry at ownership over that deal, as they should be. It's the Red Sox. They print money.
Is Mookie the AL MVP-caliber player he used to be? Certainly not, as injuries have started to slow him down. He's batting a career-low .232 with 13 homers. Betts was never a crazy power hitter with a career high of 39 homers in 2023, but he only had 39 combined the next two seasons and won't come close to that this year; he did spend a while on the injured list.
No doubt Betts is due, though, with only two homers -- both on July 20 in Philadelphia -- since June 28. Boston starts lefty Ranger Suarez (4-3, 3.02 ERA), and he's having a fine season. He doesn't give up a lot of dingers with five on the year and just one in his past eight. But against Suarez, Betts has a career 1.357 OPS with two homers and a double in 12 at-bats.
While neither has gone yard off Suarez, also consider Freddie Freeman (6-for-18, two 2B) and Andy Pages (2-for-4, two 2B). I feel like Freeman as an option every week, but Freeman usually cashes at least a Over 1.5 total bases prop.
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Have to say, I don't know that I've played a San Francisco Giants player in this article. They visit the Padres on Friday with a 9:45 ET first pitch. It's San Diego, so obviously no weather concerns. I'm just now realizing that I'm doing a California double here. Wasn't planned, just worked out that way.
I actually look early in the week at possible homer prop plays for Friday if the listed pitcher stands, and sometimes they do change due to postponements, manager decision or the like. Giants shortstop Willy Adames thus was not originally on my list of players to check once we got to Friday. At least early in the week, German Marquez (4-2, 5.17 ERA) was not penciled in as the San Diego starter, but the veteran right-hander will get the ball tonight.
He has allowed 12 homers in 11 appearances (10 starts). Petco Park is pitcher-friendly, but Marquez is getting smashed there with a 7.36 ERA, nine home runs allowed and a .299 opponents' batting average in 22.0 innings. His road splits are remarkably better when it's supposed to be the other way around when you pitch for the Padres. Maybe Marquez forgot he's not with the Rockies any longer (spent 2016-25 there) and didn't get the memo that it's OK to be good at home.
Anyway, I'm "burying the lede" as they say in the newspaper biz -- kids, those are things your parents used to read daily (sigh). I generally have no interest in a Giants batter on these props because they have not had a stellar power hitter since Barry Bonds took his oversized cap and retired. I think some big free-agent hitters don't sign there because they know that San Francisco's home Oracle Park is so pitcher friendly. So the opposite of Coors Field, which is why no good pitchers sign with Colorado.
But I simply cannot ignore Adames' career splits against Marquez: 6-for-13 with four homers for a cool OPS of 1.851. Let's just hope Adames isn't traded by first pitch. He might be as the Giants are one giant (pun intended) flea market at this point with everyone short of Logan Webb on the block. Adames is having a solid power year with 18 homers -- and he's due, as he hasn't gone yard in his past nine games -- but only hitting .227. Welcome to modern-day baseball.
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