RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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One of the best things about the NFL is that it's hard to stay bad for long. The league is built on parity, which is a big reason why the NFL is one of the most unpredictable sports on the planet.
If your favorite team finished at the bottom of its division last year, that doesn't really matter, because the NFL is set up so that even the bad teams can quickly turn things around. Going from worst-to-first is something that happens almost EVERY season in the NFL.
Since 2015, 12 teams have gone worst-to-first by winning a division title one year after finishing in last place. That's an average of just over one per year. That average has actually held pretty firm over the past two decades: Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, 31 teams have gone from worst to first, an average of 1.29 teams per year over that 24-season span.
Basically, NFL history says at least one team will go from worst to first this year. With that in mind, we're going to rank the eight last-place finishers from 2025 to find out who has the best chance to pull off a worst-to-first run in 2026.
(All division odds via DraftKings Sportsbook )
2025 record: 3-14 Odds to win NFC West: +10000
The Cardinals are in what feels like an impossible situation this year: They have a new head coach, they're dealing with QB drama, and they're stuck playing in the most difficult division in the NFL. And really, that last point is why I don't think they have any chance to go from worst-to-first. The NFC West has three Super Bowl contenders -- the Rams , Seahawks and 49ers -- and then there's Arizona. Based on that fact alone, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Cardinals win the division or even finish above .500, for that matter.
You never want to say that a team has a zero percent chance of winning their division in the always unpredictable NFL, but it really feels like the Cardinals have a zero percent chance of winning the division. Even the oddsmakers have given up on Arizona: The Cards are a 100-to-1 long shot to win the NFC West, which is basically unheard of. To put that in perspective, 25 of the NFL's 32 teams have better odds of winning the SUPER BOWL than the Cardinals have of winning their division.
Since I ranked the Cards last on this list, that basically means I see no path for them to win the division. As a matter of fact, I'm so confident they won't finish in first place that if they do, I will buy a Carson Beck jersey and wear it every Sunday for an entire year. Someone, please, remember to throw that back in my face if they win the division.
Fun fact: Over the past 29 years, the Cardinals have finished in last a total of 12 times and they have failed to go from worst to first even a single time during that span, so I wouldn't bet on it happening this year. Not only have they not gone worst-to-first recently, but they've never done it in their franchise history, which dates back to 1920.
2025 record: 3-14 Odds to win AFC West: +2000
Let me start this off by saying that I actually like what the Raiders did this offseason and that starts with the hiring of Klint Kubiak.
No one thought the Seahawks were going to win the Super Bowl last year and a big reason they were able to do that is because of Kubiak's work with the offense in Seattle. After helping the Seahawks take the NFC West last season, Kubiak knows what it takes to win a title in a tough division and he'll have to use that knowledge if he wants to lead the Raiders to the top of the AFC West. Unfortunately, I don't think that's going to happen this year.
This team is slowly putting the pieces together and I do think Kubiak will eventually turn things around. The Raiders made several smart moves in free agency, including the signings of Tyler Linderbaum , Nakobe Dean and Kwity Paye . They also used the first overall pick on Fernando Mendoza and although he probably won't be the Week 1 starter, he's in a spot where he can develop quickly since he'll be learning from Kubiak.
The problem for the Raiders is that the AFC West is absolutely stacked. The Broncos and Chargers are both coming off a 2025 season where they each made the playoffs and then if you throw in the fact that it's almost impossible to imagine the Chiefs having another down year, that doesn't leave much room for the Raiders. Mendoza wasn't even alive the last time the Raiders won the AFC West, and I don't think he'll see his first title in 2026.
Fun fact: The Raiders have never gone from worst to first, and based on how stacked the AFC West is this year, that drought probably isn't going to end in 2026.
2025 record: 5-12 Odds to win AFC North: +2100
The Browns were the hardest team to rank on this list. I thought about putting them at the bottom, but the Cardinals exist, so that wasn't going to happen. I thought about putting them seventh, but I eventually talked myself into sixth for two reasons.
The first reason is Todd Monken. The Browns' new head coach knows the division well. He spent the past three seasons as the offensive coordinator in Baltimore, so he knows what he's up against in the AFC North. With three new head coaches in the division, being familiar with your opponents can certainly be an advantage, so that's one thing that Monken has over both Jesse Minter and Mike McCarthy.
The other reason the Browns are here is because of their defense. Yes, they lost Myles Garrett , but they did get Jared Verse in that trade, and with him in the lineup, I don't think we'll see a huge drop off from what the Browns did last year. As a matter of fact, I could see a situation where the Browns' defense is actually better than it was last season.
Now, let's get to the negatives. They're going to hold a QB battle between a guy ( Deshaun Watson ) who hasn't taken a regular-season snap in almost two years and a second-year player ( Shedeur Sanders ), who led the NFL in interceptions per game last season (Minimum: six starts). Not only do you have an uninspiring QB battle, but t...
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