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By 2033, global recorded music revenues are expected to grow by 62.9% to $121.1 billion, from $74.3 billion in 2025, as expanded rights become the second-fastest growing source of revenue after streaming, according to a new report released by MIDiA on Thursday (Aug. 13).
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The Global Music Forecast 2026-2033 study found that while streaming will continue to be the primary driver of growth, the share of revenue coming from expanded rights — including labels’ share of revenue from branding, merchandise and live events — will grow as streaming growth flattens in saturated markets and music companies look to diversify revenue streams.
MIDiA projects the value of “the fan economy” could reach $18.5 billion alone by 2033, according to the report.
“As streaming comes of age, the music industry’s next growth phase will come from pulling new levers both within and beyond the subscription model,” Tatiana Cirisano , MIDiA’s vp of music strategy, said in a statement. “A growing fan economy is illuminating opportunities outside of traditional streaming. Expanded rights will be central to this.”
The report defines the fan economy as including revenue from physical music sales; streaming revenue from social, fitness, and gaming platforms (sources other than Spotify, Apple Music and other DSPs); and expanded rights from areas like branding and merch.
The report also forecasts retail growth to outpace trade growth, as the DSPs gain greater revenue share from bundling music subscriptions with other audio entertainment and other revenue sources that it does not share with music companies. Music retail revenues are expected to reach $62.7 billion, marking growth of 62.9% compared to trade revenue growth of 57.2%, the report says.
And it projects that subscription pricing will evolve in the coming years, which will eventually result in a return to growth for subscription average revenue per user (ARPU). Spotify recently forecast flat ARPU for its upcoming third quarter compared to the same period in 2025.
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