Three Up, Three Down: Eduardo Rodriguez keeps outperforming every projection and expectation — CBS Sports

RESOLVING THE LEDGER

Three Up, Three Down: Eduardo Rodriguez keeps outperforming every projection and expectation — CBS Sports | AIPROPX

Eduardo Rodriguez is no stranger to success on the mound. He's in his 12th season and once signed an $80 million contract; he's been here before. But after consecutive seasons with an ERA north of 5.00 as he heads into his mid-30s, I think it's fair to say nobody saw this kind of season coming from him.

And frankly, I still can't believe it's actually happening. How unlikely is Rodriguez's success this season? Well, here are some numbers for you: Among 26 SP with a 3.50 ERA or better, he is:

Rodriguez lowered his ERA to 2.48 with eight shutout innings against the Pirates Wednesday. The Pirates, of course, are the third-best offense in baseball by wOBA this season, so that makes perfect sense, especially when he struck out just two hitters. Obviously.

Whenever a stretch like this happens, there is a natural inclination to find an explanation for why a pitcher is outperforming his peripherals by such a huge margin. The Diamondbacks defense is surely helping a lot, but that doesn't explain it — as a staff they are outperforming their FIP by 0.21 runs total, only the eighth-biggest gap in baseball and much smaller than Rodriguez's gap. Rodriguez might get something extra these stats can't account for by being a lefty — there is some evidence lefties outperform their peripherals consistently enough for it to be real — but that doesn't even come close to explaining what we're seeing here.

So, what does? Well, at the risk of stating the obvious, he's pitching well, locating his pitches in the right spots often enough to limit damage on contact. That being said, you would expect that to show up in a stat like xERA, which accounts for the quality of contact a pitcher allows, and he entered Wednesday's start with a 4.99 xERA, the worst of his ERA estimators. So, I don't find that to be a satisfactory explanation.

I think the best explanation is … stuff happens. That is a deeply unsatisfying answer, but think about it this way: If outperforming your peripherals by the extent Rodriguez currently is, say, a 99th percentile outcome, you would still expect a few pitchers every season to do it when there are hundreds of starting pitchers around baseball. That doesn't mean you should expect any specific pitcher — including Rodriguez — to do it moving forward. But you should expect someone to do it.

This will fall apart for Rodriguez at some point, but if you want to keep playing the "hot hand" until it does, that's fine. But once the bottom falls out, you'd better be prepared to drop Rodriguez immediately. Because this is wholly unsustainable.

Here's what you might have missed from CBSSports.com's MLB coverage in recent days:

Prospects Report . Kade Anderson is back from a brief break, and he has to be on the verge of the majors, right?

Trade deadline preview . Scott White looks at 31 players whose Fantasy value could change at the deadline.

Deadline matchmaker . Mike Axisa finds the 10 deals that make the most sense at the deadline.

The top waiver-wire targets from Wednesday's action:

Christian Scott , SP, Mets (56%) – Scott finally finished six innings for the first time Wednesday, as he took a tough-luck loss to the Braves . He gave up just one run on five hits and a walk while striking out seven, and he got up to 98 pitches – an impressive performance for a guy who has been handled with kid's gloves for much of this season. Which could be a sign that the Mets are about to unleash him, and with a potential two-start where he'll face the Guardians and possibly the Pirates next week, this could be the best time to add him. But there is one wrinkle here: Scott is up to 83 pitches on the season, just 6.2 short of his career high, set back in 2024. He didn't throw at all in 2025, so there are probably some limitations coming up. What they will look like remains to be seen, but unfortunately, I suspect Scott will just be a short-term add.

Brandyn Garcia , RP, Diamondbacks (3%) – The Diamondbacks are officially pulling Paul Sewald out of the closer role, and when the first opportunity for a save came up Wednesday, it was Garcia who got the call. Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo did mention several pitchers who will feature in the ninth, but Garcia might be the most interesting of the bunch — he has a 2.17 ERA in 29 innings this season, and while he wasn't nearly that good in previous stints in the majors, the underlying numbers do back it up in this case. He has a 1.84 xERA with a 31% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate, and those are certainly closer-caliber numbers. It's a small sample size we're dealing with and there's no guarantee Garcia will remain in the role, but he got the first shot and might be good enough to keep the job, so he's who I am prioritizing.

Heriberto Hernandez , OF, Marlins (27%) — I've written about Hernandez a lot lately, because nobody seems to be taking him seriously. Well, he homered yet again Wednesday, and he's now up to 26 in 573 career MLB plate appearances — not quite a full season, and he's added eight steals on top of that, too. And the underlying data backs it up, as he has a .338 wOBA on the season but a .352 expected wOBA to go along with it. There is some swing-and-miss in Hernandez's game that will inject some skepticism into the projections for him, but that's not really a question worth asking when he's still this widely available. We can worry about whether it's sustainable when he's rostered in more than half of Fantasy leagues. Until then, Hernandez should just be rostered in all five-outfielder leagues, I think. Roto

AJ Smith-Shawver , SP, Braves (36%) – Smith-Shawver didn't blow the doors off the joint in his return from Tommy John surgery Wednesday, so you don't need to run out to add him. He pitched 4.1 innings while allowing two runs on four hits and a couple of walks. He struck out four, which isn't bad, but he also generated just two swinging strikes on 69 pitches, which leaves a lot to be desired. He's a work in progress, but one who sat 1...