RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - NOVEMBER 26: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass over Maxx Crosby #98 of the Las Vegas Raiders during the third quarter at Allegiant Stadium on November 26, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)
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We all know that DFS is all about putting points on the scoreboard. The offense is the most important factor in your racing up the DFS scoreboard. But what is often overlooked is how important the defense is to your scoring.
Since this is the first week, all stats are not to be trusted. There are teams whose defenses underwent a complete rehaul out of necessity. Some defenses are putting in new schemes with new defensive coordinators. And then there are those defenses that come into 2026 looking the same as they did in 2025, and for some (Houston Texans) we hope for no regression, and for others (Pittsburgh Steelers) we just hope they get better.
Four games are currently coming in below the DFS “threshold”. The Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans have actually moved up a point. We’ll keep an eye on all movement up until Week 1.
But for now, let's look at three of the more intriguing below-threshold options.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans -2.5, 40.5
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 28: Head Coach Aaron Glen of the New York Jets instructs his team during the game against the New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium on December 28, 2025 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Evan Bernstein/Getty Images)
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This game initially started with the over/under at 39.5. After Week 1 of preseason (and as of this writing, the Jets have not played), the line has moved up one point.
Both teams will enter the season anew. The Jets were ultra-aggressive in the offseason with their acquisitions, especially on defense. The Titans will enter the season with a new head coach, Robert Saleh, who was recently not only the head coach of the Jets but also last season the defensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers.
2025 Stats
Points Allowed: Titans 28th, allowing 28.1; Jets 31s,t allowing 29.6
Rushing Yards Allowed: Titans 14th, allowing 111.6; Jets 29t,h allowing 139.5
Passing Yards Allowed: Titans 23rd, allowing 230.5; Jets 17th, allowing 216.1
Tennessee Titans 2026
The Titans not only hired defensive-minded head coach Saleh, but Saleh in turn hired Gus Bradley as his defensive coordinator. Saleh will retain the defensive play-calling.
NASHVILLE, TN - SEPTEMBER 21: Tennessee Titans defensive tackle James Lynch (97), Tennessee Titans linebacker Cody Barton (50) and Tennessee Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons (98) during an NFL game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans on September 21, 2025 at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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Saleh traditionally employs an “aggressive attacking style. His schemes prioritize a fast, penetrating front four to generate pressure without relying on heavy blitzing. ( Last season, the Titans were tied for 12th in the league with 42 sacks. Saleh’s Niners were last with 20.) His schemes rely almost entirely on the front four winning their one-on-one matchups. He generally plays without a traditional nose tackle, depending instead on two interior defensive tackles and two defensive ends who attack gaps and can penetrate.
The secondary usually consists of two-high safety shells pre-snap, rotating a safety down post-snap to confuse the quarterback and counter play action.
V. Geno Smith: Smith and the Las Vegas Raiders had a horrendous season last year. Offensively, Smith and the Raiders were 32nd in points per game (14.2), total yards per game (247.0), and first downs per game (15.1); this was also while playing behind the 32nd-ranked offensive line. Coincidentally, or not, his current team, the Jets, ranked 29th in all the same categories.
Smith will now be playing with a better offensive line, but his consistency and processing issues when facing heavy pressure play into Saleh’s scheme. And then there is the issue of him holding the ball too long:2.70 seconds last season and 2.72 seconds in 2024, seems like a Jeffery Simmons kinda game.
New York Jets 2026
The Jets prioritized fixing their defense this year. Their bottom-of-the-barrel ranking in sacks, pressure rate, and interceptions could not sit well with a defense-minded head coach. So, now the head coach will be calling the defensive plays with his arsenal of hand-picked players designed to stop the run (2025: 29th in rushing yards allowed per game, 139.5) and to get some takeaways (2025: zero interceptions).
Per Sharp Football Analysis, last season the Jets allowed 4.4 yards per carry, which was 21st,t but also were seventh in yards before contact allowed on those runs. They were 32nd in pressure rate and 31st in sacks. Their pass defense allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt while finishing last in EPA per pass attempt allowed.
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - AUGUST 14: David Bailey #31 of the New York Jets during the pre-season game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on August 14, 2026 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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Enter free-agency acquisitions: DT T’Vondre Sweat, LB Demario Davis, S Minkah Fitzpatrick, and first-round pick David Bailey.
Glen’s defense schemes traditionally have operated out of nickel sets 70% of the time, putting emphasis on even fronts. Glenn’s newly acquired veterans and rookie Bailey will go against second-year quarterback Cam Ward and reported quarterback whisperer Brian Daboll. Ward, in his first year, was prone to playing hero ball and trusting his arm too much as he played behind the 23rd-ranked offensive line. Unfortunately, Sharp Football Analysis has the line ranked 30th going into the 2026 season.
SAFE PLAY: Tennesse...
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