This is one outlet's own report from Yahoo Sports — the article as it was filed.
AIPROPX ReportYahoo Sports · 1d ago
The Lookout Landing 2026 Hope/Cope-ometer: 28 Games Left
HOUSTON, TEXAS - AUGUST 14: Cal Raleigh #29 of the Seattle Mariners bats during the fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on August 14, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Can you believe we even get to think about something like this?
I don’t remember when I gave up hope for the first time, but I’ll tell you I was pretty close on July 29th, a 4-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. That game marked the first day that FanGraphs had the Mariners playoff odds below 50%. Their record was 53-56.
It certainly was before the Mariners low-water mark this season. On August 11th, 3 days after the club’s 50th anniversary fanfare and pageantry (another embarrassing loss), Seattle lost to the New York Yankees 4-1, dropping their record to 56-64. FanGraphs had their playoff odds at 23.9%.
They lost the next day, too. Then, over their next 13 games, they won 8 games and 3 series (and did it with a total run differential of -29) while Houston went 4-7 and Texas went 6-7. Cal Raleigh went and hit 4 home runs in two nights, and I found myself looking at squiggly lines with hope in my heart again, like an idiot.
As of this morning, with 28 games left to play, Seattle is 64-70, 2 games behind Houston and 2.5 games behind Texas in the division, 4 games behind Cleveland for the third wild card spot (lol) and have playoff odds off 42.1%.
Mariners fans’ hearts have historically strong when presented with reasons to hope, but the last few years of sporadically good baseball may have melted some of our resolve. One simply must wonder: can this team do it?
The staff weighed in on their personal Hope/Cope-ometer placement, with the scale below for reference, and our composite final, official hope ranking at the end. -NV
John:
There’s a mantra in scouting, on the 20-80 scale, that a grade of 65 is utter cowardice. With a 50 as big league average, most players will see their skills fall between a 40-60. Standard deviations, bell curves, things of that nature. So when you see something more impressive than most, you should be confident. The Mariners are playing like they were expected to most nights, they have a strong setup for the home stretch, and the teams they are chasing are donkeys in dumpsters. More to the point, if the Mariners are to make the playoffs, it will only be possible by playing at a caliber befitting of a playoff running club.
Hope Rating: 8
Isabelle:
When I take longtime former roommate and CTA (certified troublemaking asshole) corgi, Cedar, on walks, we only ever stroll peacefully and in unison for a handful of minutes. The rest of the time is spent with him yanking repeatedly at the leash to get closer to whomever or whatever he’s screaming at, or dragging him bodily up hills (no corgis were actually harmed on any of these walks) because he’s petulant about the direction we’ve gone/the fact I yelled at him about hollering at an ancient Labrador/how I deprived him of enough sniffing time/any myriad of other wrongdoings. This is the closest comparison I can make for this season to something I have actively experienced. I imagine it’s also not dissimilar to when you bungee jump off a bridge and do that painful-looking ricochet up and down a few times due to said bungee.
All that to say, I’m a 6 . Please know that prior to attending Tuesday’s game, I had this as a 4. (Oh god, there comes the ground.) Maybe I’ll change it back again before it actually pubs. (Oh wait, now we’re soaring back up to the sky.)
Nicky V:
It feels as though we live in a pessimistic world at times. Call it the new media environment, call it the rise of social media, call it the reality of being a Mariners fan, but regardless of what’s to blame, I can’t say that watching this season of Mariners Baseball has often been an exercise in escapism, or has made me feel, like, better than I did before turning on the game. It’s been comfy, though! Bad Mariners baseball feels like home, an unfortunate & revealing wound on my/our collective psyche.
Even more unfortunate, Cal Raleigh hit 4 home runs in the last two days (as I write this), George Kirby looks vintage, Canzone is out of platoon jail, so goddamnit, I’m starting to believe in the Seattle Mariners. They don’t have to do much over this final stretch to beat out Houston and Texas and put the West back in the AL West. I think they can do it. The Mariners might win every series the rest of the season with an average run differential of minus-8 per set, and win the AL West.
Hope Rating: 7/10 . I think they make a decent run and lose in 5 in the ALDS.
Kate:
In scouting they call a 45 a coward’s grade: you don’t think the prospect is bad, exactly, but you don’t think they’re good, either; some scouting departments think any grade that ends in a 5 is cowardly, trying to split the difference between projections (“fringe-average” rather than just “average” or “below average”). Typical Kate behavior, yes, why pick one thing when can pick two.
I fully acknowledge that a 5/10 is a coward’s grade to put on the old Hope-o-meter, resting exactly in the middle. But that’s not my fault, that’s the fault of the 2026 Seattle Mariners, who have Lucy-and-the-footballed me all year, seeming to promise to turn things around only to sink back down in the offensive doldrums. I’m on the record as having complained about this team’s lack of consistency all season, and while occasionally that helps them – like bouncing back for a win after getting the stuffing kicked out of them the night before – it also makes it hard to project this team putting together any kind of run going forward, which is what it would take for them to make it to the playoffs. But since no one seems to have any interest in winning the AL West, I can’t go much below 45 – and hey, Emerson Hancock was a 45 grade as a prospect, so maybe there’s hope yet.
Hope Rating: 5/10
Bee:
I have never had an interest in rooting for a super-team. Y...
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