RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesHouston Rockets team gathers as they take on the Los Angeles Lakers during Game 6 of a first-round NBA playoff basketball series at the Toyota Center in Houston on Friday, May 1, 2026. Los Angeles Lakers won the game 98-78 ending the Rockets season. (Elizabeth Conley/Houston Chronicle)
Looking at the Houston Rockets roster , it wouldn't be a leap to think they'll improve, at least slightly, on the 52-30 record they've posted in each of the past two seasons.
However, that's not the way oddsmakers see it. BetOnline Sports & Casino released its over/under win totals for the upcoming NBA regular season Monday and it has the Rockets pegged at 47.5 wins. Even with lowered expectations as far as regular season record goes, that win total still is fifth-best in the Western Conference behind the Oklahoma City Thunder (60.5), San Antonio Spurs (59.5), Denver Nuggets (49.5) and Minnesota Timberwolves (47.5). The Rockets finished last season as the fifth seed in the West behind the Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets and Lakers.
After LeBron James' decision to join the Philadelphia 76ers last week, free agency around the league is mostly done, and the Rockets retained most of last season's contributors, aside from effectively swapping out Josh Okogie and Dorian Finney-Smith for free agent signings Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic .
Add in the return of a presumably healthy Fred VanVleet, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL , and Steven Adams, who suffered an ankle injury in January that cost him the second half of the season , and the Rockets appear to have an improved roster, on paper. Of course, there are question marks. Namely, can Kevin Durant , who will be 38 years old in September, have another healthy regular season like he did a year ago when he appeared in 78 of 82 games before injuries cost him most of the first-round playoff series loss to the Lakers ?
With the Lakers losing James, they are one of the teams with the biggest drops from last season's record to their over/under win total for next season. BetOnline set the Lakers' over/under at 46.5 after they won 53 games a year ago. The Clippers, who likely will lose Kawhi Leonard, have the biggest drop with a win total of just 27.5 after going 42-40 last season.
The biggest risers are three of the tanking teams from a year ago with the Pacers' number set at 44.5 and the Wizards and Jazz both at 35.5.
There’s more to Houston with the Chronicle. Subscribe today for just 25¢. This article originally published at Oddsmakers think Houston Rockets, even fully healthy, will take a step back in 2026-27 .
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