Caleb Williams 2026 NFL futures odds, props: Will a Bears quarterback finally have a 4,000-yard passer? — CBS Sports

RESOLVING THE LEDGER

Caleb Williams 2026 NFL futures odds, props: Will a Bears quarterback finally have a 4,000-yard passer? — CBS Sports | AIPROPX

The NFL preseason kicks off in earnest this week, and the defending NFC North champion Chicago Bears have sky-high expectations. It is the second year that quarterback Caleb Williams and offensive guru head coach Ben Johnson will be working together, and the signal-caller threw for 3,942 yards and seven touchdowns in 2025. Chicago opens the preseason against the Browns on Saturday, Aug. 15, though the starters are not expected to play. Williams might not see much action at all before the Bears visit the Panthers in NFL Week 1 on Sept. 13.

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I'm not going to get into a team prediction on my Bears – although I doubt they win 11 games again against the league's toughest schedule -- but there is one statistical fact that every fan is aware of. No Chicago quarterback has ever thrown for 4,000 yards in a season. The Bears are the only franchise to have never had a 4,000-yard passer. That drought has now lasted for 106 seasons. The second-longest active streak? The New York Jets at 58 seasons after Joe Namath hit the mark in 1967.

Will that change this year with Williams? Oddsmakers say no, with Williams priced +200 to throw for at least 4,000 yards. He has an Over/Under passing yardage total of 3,624.5 yards along with 24.5 passing touchdowns. Do I think Williams getting to 4,000 should be an underdog? I do.

First off, there's the obvious injury factor -- Williams runs a fair amount. The Bears could also have a meaningless Week 18 game by being locked into their playoff seed (they sure as heck better not be eliminated). Those are just two reasons why Williams might not play all 17 games after doing so in each of his first two seasons. To reach 4,000 passing yards, a QB would need to average 235.3 yards per game. When playing 16 games, that number rises to 250.0 exactly.

I certainly had questions regarding the 2024 No. 1 overall pick entering last season following a wildly inconsistent rookie year, but now it's very clear to me that the '24 coaching staff was an utter joke. Johnson, meanwhile, might be the most creative offensive mind in the NFL. Williams threw for a franchise-record 3,942 yards along with 27 touchdowns while leading Chicago to the North title.

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As a rookie, Williams was sacked an unfathomable 68 times. In 2025 with a rebuilt offensive line and better scheme around him, that number dropped to 24. That decrease of 44 was the biggest in NFL history among QBs who started every game in both seasons.

The offensive line will be different again this season with Williams having a new center thanks to Pro Bowler Drew Dalman 's surprise retirement as well as a new left tackle due to 2025 starter Ozzy Trapilo suffering a torn patellar tendon in the postseason. His 2026 campaign is in doubt. Braxton Jones , Kiran Amegadjie and Jedrick Wills are completing to protect Williams' blind spot, while trade acquisition Garrett Bradbury should hold down center. Dalman led all NFL players last season with 1,103 offensive snaps.

One thing Williams needs to absolutely improve is accuracy, as his completion rate of 58.1% last season was the worst for any quarterback to reach the postseason since Andrew Luck in 2012. It was also better than only Minnesota's JJ McCarthy among QBs who played in at least 10 games.

You probably won't be surprised that because no Bears QB has thrown for 4,000 yards, none have led the NFL in passing yards either. Williams is +2000 to do that with Cincinnati's Joe Burrow and Detroit's Jared Goff as co-favorites at +750. Obviously, Williams could be playing in some lousy outdoor cold-weather games late in the season, including likely three straight from Weeks 15-17: at Buffalo, vs. Green Bay and vs. Detroit. Williams is cheaper for MVP at +1400 than to lead in passing yards. He did lose 2025 second-leading receiver DJ Moore (50 catches for 682 yards and six TDs) via trade to Buffalo.

DraftKings offers two specials on Williams: +175 that he throws for 400 yards in any regular-season game and +100000 that the former Heisman winner throws for at least 250 yards in all 17. Rather comically, my Bears have only had four games with a 400-yard passer and not since Nov. 14, 1999, when Jim Miller threw for 422 yards against the Vikings . That's also the longest such active drought in the league. Williams' career high thus far is 363 as a rookie vs. the Colts .

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No doubt Williams could hit 400 this season, but that other one is all but surely not happening. Chicago opens (currently -2.5) on Sept. 13 at Carolina and without the Panthers ' generosity ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft , the Bears never get Williams in 2024. The SportsLine Projection Model has Williams throwing for 240 yards and 1.80 TDs in that game . Multiply those numbers by 17 and you get 4,080 yards and 30.6 TDs, but obviously there are a much better defesnes on the Bears' schedule than Carolina's.