RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Democrat James Talarico has moved ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the latest Texas Senate polling, according to a new Texas Pulse survey conducted by ReconMR for the Texas A&M Bush School. Talarico leads Paxton 47 percent to 43 percent among likely Texas voters, marking a notable shift from the same pollster's June survey, when the two candidates were tied at 46 percent.
The four-point advantage puts Talarico in the lead for the first time in the Texas Pulse series, but the race remains within statistical striking distance. The new poll surveyed 619 likely Texas voters from July 27 to July 30 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, meaning the poll can be viewed as evidence of a tight race rather than Talarico establishing a durable lead that will be reflected on Election Day.
Still, the movement is noteworthy. In June, Paxton and Talarico were locked at 46 percent apiece in the Texas Pulse poll. Now, Talarico has gained a point while Paxton has dropped three points, producing a four-point swing in Talarico's direction. The latest numbers also come as Talarico has continued to perform strongly with independent voters: The new poll has him leading Paxton 53 percent to 30 percent among the crucial voting bloc.
Newsweek reached out to Paxton and Talarico's campaigns via email on Friday night for comment.
The poll also highlights the challenge facing Paxton beyond the Republican base. Talarico leads among women, 53 percent to 40 percent, and among voters under 65, while Paxton maintains a strong advantage among Republicans and voters 65 and older. Talarico's strength is particularly pronounced among younger voters, where he leads 66 percent to 23 percent among those ages 18 to 34.
For Talarico, the latest survey adds to a growing collection of polls showing an unusually competitive Texas Senate race. But the margin-of-error caveat remains important: A four-point lead in a poll with a 4.7-point margin of error means Paxton is hardly out of the race. What the poll does show is that a contest that was tied in June has shifted toward Talarico, giving Democrats another reason to view Texas as a potentially competitive Senate battleground heading into November.
“When it comes to issues, voters say Talarico would do a better job than Paxton on making prices more affordable, dealing with the war in Iran, keeping Texans safe, and managing the water supply. The only issue voters think Paxton will do better at – and only barely – is securing the border with Mexico,” veteran pollster and Texas A&M Visiting Professor Clifford Young said in the survey.
Young later added, "For Paxton, the good news is voters think he’s tough. But the bad news is that a majority or plurality of voters say that Paxton is not honest, authentic, or in touch with Texas values. And even worse, by a 55-35% margin, voters say Paxton is corrupt.”
Republicans in the Senate hold a 53-45 majority—excluding independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats—and Democrats view flipping the Texas seat as a potential pathway to reclaiming the upper chamber, while Republicans see it as essential to maintaining their lead.
For Paxton, who has been backed by President Donald Trump, the poll underscores potential challenges of unifying independents and Hispanics after a divisive nomination battle against GOP Senator John Cornyn.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 45 percent to 40 percent. The poll surveyed 1,048 likely Texas voters from July 15 to July 17 and had a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
A Fox News poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 51 to 48 percent, within the survey's margin of error. Among those who are both extremely motivated and extremely interested to vote, Talarico leads 53 percent to 47 percent in both groups.
The poll surveyed 1,006 Texas registered voters from July 23 to July 27 and has a margin of error of 3 percent.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins .
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