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New Maine Senate Poll Shows Susan Collins Slipping as Midterms Loom
0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. The 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race is becoming increasingly competitive, with a new Fox News poll showing Democratic candidate Troy Jackson holding a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins.
The poll, conducted August 6-10, found Jackson ahead of Collins with 48 percent to 46 percent, putting the race within the poll's 3 percent margin of error and underscoring how closely contested the election could be. The result follows a June survey from the pollster showing Collins with 50 percent compared to embattled former Democratic nominee Graham Platner's 47 percent. The new poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Maine.
Platner formally withdrew from the race after allegations emerged about his past conduct, including accusations of inappropriate behavior and alleged sexual assault, which he has denied.
Although Collins has developed a reputation as a more moderate Republican and has sometimes broken with President Donald Trump, Maine voters appear to be paying close attention to her ties to the president. The poll shows that 55 percent are extremely or very concerned that Collins votes too often with Trump.
That could present a challenge for Collins in a state where voters have historically shown a willingness to elect candidates from both parties and where independent voters can play an important role in statewide elections.
Newsweek reached out to both Collins and Jackson's campaigns via email on Wednesday night.
Jackson's emergence as the Democratic nominee has also dramatically changed the shape of the race. He became the party's nominee after Platner withdrew, and Jackson brings a distinctly Maine political background to the contest.
A fifth-generation logger from northern Maine and former president of the Maine Senate, Jackson has attempted to emphasize his working-class roots and experience representing rural communities. His background could help him appeal to voters who may not normally support a Democratic Senate candidate, particularly in northern and rural parts of the state.
The latest numbers suggest a competitive race, but they don't necessarily signal immediate trouble for Collins. Jackson's two-point advantage falls within the poll's margin of error, and Collins has a strong track record in Maine.
The election is also months away, giving both campaigns time to persuade undecided voters. Jackson will likely face questions about his progressive positions and his political evolution, while Collins will likely face questions about her relationship with the Republican Party and Trump and stances on key policy issues.
According to the poll, Jackson’s strongest support comes from liberals, younger voters, college-degree holders and union households. He also leads among voters under 45, while men overall are evenly split between the two candidates.
Collins’ support is strongest among conservatives, White evangelical Christians, voters without college degrees, and rural voters, the poll shows.
Compared with Platner’s June numbers, Jackson has held even with women, college graduates and suburban voters while gaining significantly among voters under 45. Collins has also lost her previous 10-point advantage among men, according to the poll.
Nearly all MAGA Republicans support Collins, but her support falls nearly 20 percent among Republicans who do not identify with MAGA. Nearly one in five of those non-MAGA Republicans support Jackson, the Fox News poll shows.
Overall, the latest polling suggests that the Maine Senate race deserves to be viewed as a genuine toss-up rather than a safe seat for Collins. The Cook Political Report has the race slated as a toss-up.
Jackson's early advantage is notable given the unusual circumstances surrounding his entry into the race, but the close margins suggest the contest remains wide open.
With the November 3 election approaching, the contest could ultimately come down to whether Collins can rebuild support among moderates and independents or whether Jackson can turn his current polling advantage into a broader statewide coalition.
A Pine Tree State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center last month, shows Collins with 46 percent compared to Jackson's 49 percent. The survey shows that 2 percent would vote for another candidate while 3 percent are undecided.
The poll surveyed 1,178 likely general election voters from July 15 to July 20, 2026, and had a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
A Hart Research Poll, by Democratic sponsor Senate Majority PAC, showed Collins with 45 percent compared to Jackson's 49 percent, while 6 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 802 likely Maine general election voters from July 27 through August 1 and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins .
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