On the Record: Don’t freak out, but Ohio State isn’t going undefeated

From now until preseason camp starts later this week, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about the things we need to get off our chests before the season starts; the things we need to get on the record. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”On the Record” articles here .

While I realize that there isn’t a big constituency crowing about how Ohio State will go undefeated in the upcoming 2026 college football season, there are always those out there who expect it seemingly every year.

It’s always unrealistic to expect perfection, but it’s Ohio State, and that comes with it high (read: often unrealistic) expectations. Don’t expect that this year, because I’m going on record right now to say it isn’t going to happen.

The Buckeyes will lose at least one game, and probably two.

I also realize that Ryan Day’s team has elite talent and is fully capable of putting together a perfect season in 2026. The Buckeyes are as likely as anyone to run the table, and more likely than most, but it simply isn’t in the cards this fall.

But that’s OK. Even with two (or even three!) losses, this is an Ohio State team that could get into the College Football Playoff — and win it — despite suffering defeat a couple of times.

Recent history even suggests that Ohio State needs a kick-in-the-pants loss somewhere along the way to reach its full potential. After all, the team ran the table in the regular season in 2025, only to stumble twice in the postseason.

This came just a year after losing at Oregon and at home to Michigan and then taking those frustrations out on all comers in the 2024 College Football Playoff en route to a national title.

Why am I so sure the Buckeyes aren’t looking at a perfect 2026? Several reasons:

The Schedule

The first thing that sticks out is how much tougher the 2026 schedule is than the 2025 one was.

Trips to Texas, Iowa, Indiana, and USC stand out immediately as being problematic. Even the trip to Nebraska could present some problems in terms of atmosphere. If the Cornhuskers are in the mood to play at the top of their game, they can keep things close in Lincoln, and then the game is anyone’s for the taking.

Then there are the home games against Oregon and a new-look Michigan under Kyle Whittingham. The Ducks and Wolverines will likely both be in the hunt for the postseason in 2026, and we’ve seen plenty of examples throughout the years that records and talent don’t always mean anything when it comes to The Game.

It will be a tough ask for any team to get through Ohio State’s 2026 schedule completely unscathed.

Another Defensive Rebuild

What Matt Patricia did in 2025 was insanely impressive. He took almost an entirely new set of players and built a defense that was the best in the country.

While I wouldn’t exactly bet heavily against him doing it again, it won’t be as easy this time, as generational players like Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs have departed, along with the team’s best pass rusher (again), and an exceptional athletic freak like Arvell Reese, who allowed the coaching staff to do things from the same formations and personnel sets that otherwise couldn’t be done.

Is there another freak like Reese on the roster? Possibly, but until I see it, I will have a hard time believing another one came along so quickly. Add in the losses of Caden Curry and Kaden McDonald, and there are lots of gigantic shoes to fill across the defense.

Taking the Heat Off Smith

I think we’ll get a full understanding in 2026 of just how good Carnell Tate was as a wide receiver.

Tate was not only able to take advantage of defenses paying extra attention to Jeremiah Smith. He was nearly as talented in his own right. He could make plays in the air over the top of defenders, beat guys deep with his speed, make sick fingertip catches at the boundary, and lose his man with a decisive first step and a shimmy.

There is a ton of talent in Ohio State’s wide receiver group. But is there a guy who can take over games when Smith is drawing so much attention? The answer is “probably,” but until we see it, we just won’t know.

I’ve said it before in these pages, but I love what Chris Henry Jr. can bring to the red zone offense. I think he’ll quickly emerge as the new go-to opposite Smith that Tate was, but it’s a lot to ask of a first-year player, despite what Smith has shown in his short time at Ohio State.

And there you have it.

I’m on the record as saying the dream of an undefeated season is a pipe dream only. The 2026 team may end up being better than the 2025 team. It may win a national title like the 2024 squad. But it isn’t going to get to the postseason without a blemish in the loss column along the way.

I could see a scenario where two regular-season losses and a loss in the Big Ten championship game might not be enough to knock the Buckeyes out of the College Fooball Playoff, however.

If the Big Ten continues to show the quality and depth it has over the past two seasons (or build upon it), the B1G might get the same treatment previously reserved for the SEC.

Indexed and credited by AIPROPX. Originating outlet: Yahoo Sports. Open at source →