Trump Posts 'Midterm Reckoning' Warning for Republicans—What Polls Show

0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. President Donald Trump shared a post from a conservative influencer on Truth Social warning that Republicans are facing a “midterm reckoning” in the 2026 midterm elections.

The post was first made by Matt Van Swol, a conservative commentator, in July, but Trump just shared the post on social media on Wednesday, less than 70 days until the midterms .

Trump shared a screenshot of the post without adding any further comment, but it appears to be a rare acknowledgment from the president that Republicans could be in trouble in this year’s elections, as polls continue to give Democrats an advantage over Republicans.

Van Swol’s post blamed Republicans in Congress, rather than Trump himself, for voter frustration with the party, criticizing conservatives for not doing more to advance the party’s agenda.

Trump has found himself at odds with Republicans in Congress throughout his second term in office, particularly as the Senate has not advanced the SAVE Act, a bill that would require Americans to present documentary proof of citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, has said there are not enough votes for it to pass.

“I'm very worried the GOP is sleepwalking toward a midterm reckoning they don’t see coming. People are pissed off that they voted Trump into office and then the GOP continues to slow-walk every reform people want,” Van Swol wrote.

He questioned why there have been “no true mass deportations,” any “true accountability” or “no meaningful decrease in the deficit,” knocking Congress for having “Lots of very long vacations and no work.”

“People are waking up and they aren't happy about it. People believed they were voting for the Trump agenda. and instead, many feel like they’re getting the same old Washington. If Republicans in Congress don’t start producing tangible results, they’re going to discover that frustration has consequences,” he wrote.

Newsweek reached out to the Republican National Committee (RNC) for comment via email.

It’s not unusual for the party in power to have a difficult midterm.

In fact, historically, the party in the White House does suffer losses, particularly if the president is unpopular or if Americans are unhappy with the state of the economy. Polling suggests these are two major hurdles Republicans would have to overcome in this year’s election to avoid significant losses.

Numerous polls have shown Trump’s approval rating reach a record low nationwide. On Wednesday, his average net approval rating was -17.4 points on RealClearPolling, which showed 39.6 percent of Americans approving and 57 percent disapproving of his job performance.

Meanwhile, Americans are also frustrated with the economy . The Conference Board announced on Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 89.4 in August, down from 90.2 in July.

A new poll from YouGov and The Economist also revealed Americans’ concerns about the economy.

Only 3 percent of respondents said they believed the economy is in excellent condition, while 21 percent said they would rate it as “good.” Thirty-three percent said the state of the economy was “fair,” while a 40 percent plurality said it is “poor.” It surveyed 1,215 adults nationwide from August 21 to August 24 and had a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

In the House, Democrats only need to retake a handful of seats to win a majority due to the slim GOP majority, which on Wednesday was 218 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with one independent.

But the Senate presents Democrats a challenging map. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, so Democrats need to flip four seats for a majority, as Vice President JD Vance is the tiebreaker.

Democrats are defending two seats in states Trump won in 2024, Georgia and Michigan, and have only two clear targets in Maine, which Trump lost in all three of his races, and North Carolina, which Trump won by only about 3 points in 2024.

But with no other GOP-held seats in states Trump lost or won by single digits in 2024 up for grabs, Democrats have to turn to more conservative territory like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, which backed Trump by double digits in 2024, to win a majority. Even if Democrats win the popular vote, they may still lose the Senate. Polls suggest all four of those states are competitive, and the Cook Political Report classifies those races as toss-ups.

The latest generic ballot tests show that Democrats are currently enjoying modest leads over Republicans with fewer than 70 days until the midterms.

A McLaughlin & Associates poll showed Democrats with a 5-point lead over Republicans, 48 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from August 18 to 24, 2026.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Democrats up 6 points, 41 percent to 35 percent. It surveyed 1,215 adults nationwide from August 21 to 24, 2026 and had a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

Meanwhile, another survey from Verasight and Strength in Numbers gave Democrats a 6-point generic ballot lead, 49 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 1,514 adults from August 14 to 19, 2026 and had a margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points.

Meanwhile, Democrats are closing the polling gap in several states Trump won by double digits in the 2024 election.

In Alaska, which Trump won by 13 points in 2024, two recent polls pointed to a close race.

An Alaska Survey Research poll, which surveyed 1,371 likely voters from August 2 to 5, showed former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat, with a 2-point lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan—51 percent to 49 percent. Its margin of error was ±3 percentage points.

A poll from The New York Times and Siena University showed Sullivan up 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 593 likely voters from June 15 to...

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