Fantasy Football: How to approach the QB position and which players to target in each phase of your 2026 draft

Like seemingly every other guy entering their 30s, I picked up cooking and smoking meat as hobbies about fifteen years ago. My granddad gave me some pointers. I got a grill for Father's Day. And I proceeded to burn myself and some (most) of our food until I got the hang of things. I still remember when I was about to do my first brisket and when soliciting advice from my older friends, their answers started with the same phrase: "Well, it depends …"

I never knew so many factors mattered. From my heat source (coal, splits, pellets) to the amount of dry rub used, more caveats than actionable knowledge came. Taking a QB can become just as complicated once you dive into it.

Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season

You want to draft your guy, but any analyst will have you reconsidering everything. So, to help, I put together how I'm approaching the position as a function of the draft cost for 2026.

Taking a QB in the Early Rounds

Pros: Less uncertainty on a week-to-week basis; set it and forget it

Cons: One less chance to take a high-end WR and RB

Despite the defensive meta that's put the lid on most offenses, QBs are still the MVP of both real and fantasy football. Even when we talk about receivers and their accolades, a mention of who's throwing them the ball (and their rank amongst their peers) isn't too far behind.

The top 10 catches of the 2025 season 🤩 pic.twitter.com/uREYOdcLaS

— NFL (@NFL) February 13, 2026

Over the last five seasons, QBs have scored an average of 19.7 PPG. RBs and WRs are at 14.7 and 14.9, respectively. TEs bring up the rest of the skill players at 11.9. The gap is why we covet signal-callers. But we also have to recognize that we start more rushers and receivers. That becomes even more significant in the early rounds.

Round 1 (from 2021-2025): 17.6 (RB PPR PPG), 18.4 (WR PPR PPG)

Round 2: 15.1, 15.9

Round 3: 14.7, 13.9

Round 4: 12.5, 14.4

Round 5: 12.0, 12.6

Round 6: 11.0, 12.8

I'm not breaking any news here, but talent dwindles as we get deeper into the draft. In other words, our best bet to get the core players (the starters we need the most from each week) is in the early rounds. But if we sink one of those picks into a QB, we're giving up that chance. However, there are ways we can minimize the risk of hurting our team.

Here's a look at points above replacement for each position by draft round since 2021. Chris Allen

I built a points above replacement (PAR) model to measure a player's value over their positional baseline. Surprisingly, QBs with a second-round ADP become an optimal selection with this approach. In other words, landing on an elite QB was, in fact, the right move. Josh Allen (2022-2025), Patrick Mahomes (2021, 2023) and Jalen Hurts (2023), even with their expensive draft costs, were worth their respective clicks. But as you can see, the case for passers disappears. And when you see a few of the guys causing the disruption, you'll know why.

Joe Burrow (2023, 2025)

Jayden Daniels (2025)

Lamar Jackson (2021, 2022)

Injuries ravaged the seasons of our favorite QB picks in rounds 3-5. Sure, each carried their own risk profiles. But as we were chasing the top tier, we flew too close to the sun and got burned in the process. So, there is an element of "good process, bad results" to the data. However, by applying the takeaways from the model to 2026 ADP, a few recognizable names come to the top.

Josh Allen – 19.4 (ADP)

Jalen  Hurts – 56.3

Justin Herbert – 66.6

Simply put, we're either paying the iron price or waiting until the sixth round to find our guy. Which, according to historical data, aligns with where QB value picks up again. So, the names pass the sniff test. And their individual profiles all speak to their potential upside.

Allen is the only QB out of the group with a three-season average rank in EPA per dropback and QB rushing rate in the top 12. Hurts may be lacking in passing efficiency, but has pulled ahead in exploiting the Konami Code (sixth). Meanwhile, Herbert has been slightly behind both, but with an OC upgrade has the path to keeping up with the perennial top options. So, if you come into your draft with an early-round QB in mind, don't use ceiling outcomes as a reason to add them to your team. Consider their risk profile and opportunity cost before making your final decision.

Other Early-Round Target(s): Drake Maye

Drafting a Passer in the Mid-Rounds

Pros: Increased flexibility across your entire roster

Cons: Drop in weekly upside at the position

The simple answer for mid-round QBs would be to take the same profile of our high-end passers and lower the bar a notch. Let's call them "early-round-lite" options. Because, let's be honest, we see these guys having big performances sometimes. They feel just as likely to outscore the high-class passers. But that's where we start to lean over our skis a bit.

JUSTIN FIELDS CLEARED FOR 6 pic.twitter.com/7EffymNe6S

— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) September 7, 2025

Justin Fields was a 10th-round pick last season. We all knew why. His penchant for tucking the ball (and the allure of a Ben Johnson acolyte pulling the strings behind Fields) had everyone reliving Fields' rookie season. But the result was something his detractors saw coming. Fields' inability to sustain an above-average passing game had him on the bench. Sure, we got the single-game highs, but the multiple zeros that followed highlight a flaw in our approach to the middle rounds.

Designed Rushing Rate (2021-2025): 0.82 (r value)

Scramble Rate: 0.78

Dropbacks per Game: 0.51

EPA per Dropback: 0.30

On the one hand, it's easier for us to predict which QBs will flash their mobility each year. The year-over-year stability for designed rushing and scrambling is much higher than any volume or efficiency stat over the last five years. But this just tells us...

Indexed and credited by AIPROPX. Originating outlet: Yahoo Sports. Open at source →