Will Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs retake the division? Predicting the AFC West

The Denver Broncos ended the Kansas City Chiefs’ nine-year reign atop the AFC West in 2025. Can Sean Payton and the Broncos repeat?

Quarterback Bo Nix is coming off ankle surgery but he’s optimistic his surgically repaired ankle won’t hinder him this year. Helping matters is Denver's splash trade for speedy wide receiver Jaylen Waddle.

The Chiefs endured a nightmare season, but three-time Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes is confident he’ll be ready to roll in Week 1 following a season-ending knee injury in 2025 . The Chiefs signed Super Bowl 60 MVP Kenneth Walker III but also lost starting cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson this offseason.

The Chargers earned playoff berths in each of the past two seasons. Los Angeles hired the innovative Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator to spark its offense.

In Las Vegas, the Raiders made plenty of changes, headlined by 2026 No. 1 overall pick, quarterback Fernando Mendoza and head coach Klint Kubiak. But they still face an uphill battle in arguably the best division in football.

Who will win the AFC West this season? USA TODAY Sports examines the division and provides an early prediction.

Denver Broncos

Denver’s stout defense led the NFL in sacks in each of the past two seasons. With edge Nik Bonitto leading the way, expect the Broncos to wreak havoc again. Patrick Surtain II, 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, has allowed under 40 catches and below a 67 passer rating when targeted in each of the past two seasons. On offense, Sean Payton is handing over play-calling responsibilities to OC Davis Webb. It’s going to be interesting to see how the procedural change impacts Bo Nix’s development. Nix’s ankle is also something to monitor after two procedures this offseason.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes became the first player in NFL history to earn an overall contract value of over half a billion dollars . The three-time Super Bowl champ is worth every penny because the Chiefs’ success is largely dependent on him. Mahomes’ ability to bounce back from a 2025 season-ending knee injury is a major storyline . The Chiefs bolstered their backfield with the addition of Kenneth Walker III, but they didn’t upgrade their pass catchers. Travis Kelce is getting older, and the tight end being a No. 1 option on a weekly basis isn’t sustainable. Defensively, the Chiefs drafted CB Mansoor Delane in the first round and brought back a familiar face in CB L'Jarius Sneed to help supplement the losses of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.

Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders minority owner Tom Brady, general manager John Spytek and Klint Kubiak all seem to be in alignment to take a conservative approach with 2026 No. 1 overall pick QB Fernando Mendoza; Kirk Cousins is expected to start the season with Mendoza waiting in the wings. Mendoza’s time could come sooner rather than later with an impressive training camp and preseason, and he's complemented by an intriguing core that includes Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty. Las Vegas was extremely active in free agency signing notable players such as center Tyler Linderbaum, and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker.

Los Angeles Chargers

Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers have earned 11 wins in each of the past two seasons, but both seasons have ended in disappointing, quick playoff exits. Pressure is starting to mount on Justin Herbert due to his 0-3 career playoff record. The Chargers are hoping they can reach new heights with offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, an innovative offensive mind who's put an emphasis on quick passing opportunities. The Chargers have the talent to be a playoff team again, but Herbert and the offense must overcome their postseason demons if they get there. The loss of defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to Baltimore is a blow, but the Chargers brought in a familiar face in Chris O'Leary who’s implementing a similar scheme.

AFC West prediction: Chargers bolt to top of AFC West

The AFC West could have as many as three playoff teams, but Harbaugh gets the Chargers over the hump in his third year as the franchise wins its first AFC West title since 2009.

The Chargers are bringing back most of their starters from a top five defensive unit, but they did lose the leadership of Jesse Minter. Offensively, Mike McDaniel’s scheme appears to be a better fit for Justin Herbert, running back Omarion Hampton and wide receivers Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. McDaniel’s offense is a clear contrast from the outdated ground-and-pound system that former OC Greg Roman implemented.

The Broncos were one game away from a Super Bowl appearance and look to be improved on offense with wideout Jaylen Waddle. Denver’s shown the ability to get after the quarterback, with an NFL-most 131 combined sacks the past two seasons.

Mahomes and the Chiefs can’t be overlooked, either. If Mahomes is healthy, he gives the Chiefs a chance to win each week, and now shares the backfield with a fellow Super Bowl MVP in Kenneth Walker III. The Chiefs questions are on defense: Can someone other than Chris Jones consistently rush the passer? Are Mansoor Delane and L'Jarius Sneed both prepared to be starting cornerbacks?

The Raiders might be a couple years away from truly contending in the division, but their outlook appears promising with Fernando Mendoza, Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty. Las Vegas’ free agency spending could expedite their rebuilding process, but the Chargers, Broncos and Chiefs are undisputed playoff contenders.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Tyler Dragon on X  @TheTylerDragon .

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY Sports: Will Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs retake the division? Predicting the AFC West

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