Three Up, Three Down: Zack Wheeler's stunning slide makes him too risky to trust in Fantasy

For a while there, Zack Wheeler looked like the very best bet you could have made in drafts this season. Despite coming off Thoracic Outlet syndrome surgery, he put up a 2.16 ERA through his first start after the All-Star break, capped off with a stretch where he averaged 10.8 strikeouts per start over a four-start span. He looked, for all intents and purposes, like the absolute best version of himself.

That was a month ago. A lot can happen in a month, and in Wheeler's case, what has happened is his season-long ERA has risen by more than a run in the past month. He got absolutely demolished by the Mariners Monday night, who put up eight runs on nine hits, five walks, and four home runs … in Seattle. Yikes.

It was just about the worst possible outcome you could get from a starting pitcher of Wheeler's caliber, and it pushed his season-long ERA to 3.40. In just a month, Wheeler has gone from third in the majors in ERA to 23rd. Sure, sure, you absolutely would have taken a 3.40 ERA from Wheeler when you drafted him; the run he is on is threatening to undo much of the good he did for your team in those first 16 starts. And we're very much at the point where you have to ask if he even deserves a spot in your lineup moving forward.

What makes this all confusing is that there isn't necessarily an obvious explanation for why things have gotten so bad for Wheeler. His velocity was down about 0.3 mph from his season-long average Monday, which is a pretty typical amount of variance for a single start. He also generated 15 swinging strikes on 103 pitches, a sign that the stuff is still viable.

The problem Monday was pretty clearly one of command and control. He had five walks, so that kind of goes without saying, but it's not just about walks; he also just caught too much of the zone too often, especially with his splitters down and his fastballs up.

And that's been the story throughout this whole stretch for Wheeler. His Stuff+ rating on FanGraphs.com has held steady around 105 pretty much all season (it is actually up a bit to 107 in this stretch, with 100 representing average), but his command rating. He put up a 108 Location+ mark through July 21, which would be tied for the sixth-best mark among all starters; in his previous five starts entering Monday, he was down to a 98, which would be a bottom-10 mark among all qualifiers for the season.

Of course, you'll still see names like Dylan Cease , Cade Cavalli , Cristopher Sanchez , and Nolan McLean at that mark or worse, so it's not like you can't overcome that. But you can't just assume that just because one pitcher (or, you know, four) can succeed with poor command, that every pitcher can. Wheeler has rated out well by that stat for as long as the data has existed, so it's reasonable to draw the conclusion that, while his command might not be terrible in a vacuum, it is uniquely poor for him.

Command fluctuates, of course, and if Wheeler's stuff still looks okay, he might be able to turn things around. Of course, you have to wonder if his stuff only looks okay because he has to exert more effort to get there in a way that is negatively affecting his command. That seems like an impossible theory to prove or disprove from where I'm sitting, but given what we've seen over the past month from Wheeler, I don't think we can just assume everything is fine right now.

Does that mean he's dealing with some unspecified or undiagnosed injury? Not necessarily, though we've seen Bryce Miller really struggle over the past couple of months and only recently reveal he has been pitching through an injury. And, given Wheeler's history over the past year, it definitely isn't out of the realm of possibility that there's something going on, even something relatively minor, that has thrown him off.

One thing is certain, though: You can't use Wheeler right now. He hasn't had a quality start in over a month and has an 8.17 ERA over his past six starts, with 16 walks – he had just 22 walks in his first 16 starts, by comparison. That includes poor outings against beatable matchups like the Marlins , Blue Jays , Cardinals , and Mariners; given that, even a matchup against the Angels feels too risky right now.

He could go out Sunday and absolutely shove. He could go out the next month and carry you to a championship. I wouldn't be shocked if he does – Wheeler has already made me look stupid for doubting him once this season. But the risk in trusting him right now outweighs the potential reward. July feels like it was a long time ago.

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The top waiver-wire targets from Monday's action:

Calvin Faucher , RP, Marlins (2%) – The Marlins have stuck with Pete Fairbanks through a lot of struggles, but Faucher's chance might be coming after Fairbanks exited Monday's game with a nerve issue in his hand. It's the second time he has dealt with this issue this season, and the previous time saw him land on the IL for nearly three weeks. Faucher only got one of the Marlins' three saves during that span, so it's no guarantee he'll be an impact add, but he's probably the best candidate to step up if Fairbanks does have to go on the IL, and you could end up with a couple of saves out of him for your troubles.

Kaelen Culpepper , SS, Twins (34%) – I'm gonna be honest: I don't necessarily think George Lombard should be viewed that much differently than Culpepper for Fantasy. They were similar prospects before their debuts, and while Lombard's youth and approach ...

Indexed and credited by AIPROPX. Originating outlet: CBS Sports. Open at source →