Gold's next test: Fed verdict, crude oil and geopolitical tensions in focus

After ending the previous week on a stronger note, gold and silver are now headed into a week packed with major domestic and geopolitical events. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, movements in crude oil prices and the evolving US-Iran conflict will be the key drivers for bullion in the days ahead, according to analysts.Market's attention will not be limited to the Fed as investors will also be tracking US Consumer Confidence data, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figures, weekly jobless claims, and monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan."Market sentiment will continue to be driven by developments in the US-Iran geopolitical situation, the direction of crude oil prices, and their impact on inflation expectations ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on July 29," said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency, LKP Securities.Recovery follows a volatile weekGold and silver recovered by the end of last week after witnessing sharp swings driven by developments in the oil market.According to analysts, Brent crude briefly reclaimed the $100-per-barrel mark after Houthi strikes on Saudi-owned vessels heightened fears of supply disruptions. As oil prices later retreated on profit booking, precious metals regained ground.In the domestic market, gold futures for August delivery settled Rs 2,200, or 1.6%, higher at Rs 1.43 lakh per 10 grams over the week.Silver futures for September delivery also ended the week in positive territory, rising Rs 5,735, or 2.7%, to Rs 2.22 lakh per kilogram on the Multi Commodity Exchange.Global markets mirrored the trend. Comex gold futures for August delivery rose $52, or 1.3%, to $4,070.8 per ounce, while September silver futures advanced $3, or nearly 5%, to $58.90 per ounce in New York.Markets await fresh cuesPraveen Singh, head of commodities at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said bullion is likely to remain range-bound as traders continue to monitor developments surrounding Iran.He also said China's central bank continued to add to its gold holdings in May, providing continued support from official-sector buying.Apart from geopolitical developments, traders will keep a close watch on shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. The market will also parse comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after the policy decision for indications on the future path of US interest rates and the direction bullion prices could take.Get the latest Business News and Live updates. Download the TOI app.

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