Yordan Alvarez huge AL MVP favorite, but should he be? Why race may not be as big a blowout as odds suggest

As far as MVP races go this season, the National League side is taking all the headlines as Pete Crow-Armstrong looks to take down the juggernaut that is Shohei Ohtani . We covered that Thursday . What about the American League side, though?

I know that the great Han Solo made the phrase, "never tell me the odds!" famous, but we're going to see for ourselves. Based on a glance at the current odds (via Fanduel ), this appears to be a monster blowout in favor of Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez . But should it be? I'll run down a few cases and include the odds to illustrate.

Don't let his hulking 6-foot-4, 237-pound frame fool you, Alvarez has been one of the best all-around hitters in baseball from the day he debuted in 2019. He entered this season as a career .297/.389/.573 hitter with a Rookie of the Year, an ALCS MVP and a World Series ring (he hit the big home run in that clinching game, too).

Staying on the field all year was the only real problem. This year, he was coming off a 48-game season in 2025. So far, he's been in the lineup all year and in his 120 games, he's having the best year of his career.

The line: .322/.436/.621 (196 OPS+) with 25 doubles, 35 home runs, 87 RBI and 80 runs. He leads the majors in the entire triple slash line (yes, average, OBP, slugging and OPS in addition to OPS+). He leads the AL in home runs, RBI, runs and hits, too. Oh, and he also leads the majors in intentional walks with 23(!). No one else in the AL has more than 10 intentional walks.

Though he's a net negative on the bases and in the field, Alvarez usually serves as the DH and his offensive prowess is overwhelming the rest of the field.

There's little doubt Alvarez is the leader in the clubhouse here. The odds suggest to me the race is pretty much over and I'm not so sure about that. I don't think his lead is slump-proof. It's not like he's a two-way player like Ohtani or a three-facet threat like Pete Crow-Armstrong with the hitting, baserunning and defense.

Sure enough, Alvarez only leads in Fangraphs' WAR (fWAR) by 0.1 and is 0.1 off the lead in baseball-reference.com's version (bWAR).

This doesn't mean he shouldn't win it. I've explained before that the MVP isn't the race for the highest WAR. I'm simply saying I really don't think this race is over. Again, it isn't slump-proof and we know about Alvarez's injury history.

The Rays have the best AL record by a mile. More than that, really. They just completed a 9-0 road trip out west and, despite weaker competition, that's a massive feat for any team traveling across the country for a nine-game road trip. They are now 74-46. The Yankees have the second-best record in the AL at 68-53, meaning the Rays have a 6.5-game lead for the top AL seed.

At times in awards voting, when there's a team this dominant, the urge is to find the best player on that team, and it would be Caminero.

He's tied for the lead in home runs with Alvarez and only trails by 10 RBI and four runs scored. He's a bit behind in the triple slash line, hitting .279/.370/.553 (156 OPS+). Now, Caminero does bring more value on the bases and on defense, but isn't strong enough in either to make a big dent in Alvarez's hitting lead.

For those interested, the WAR difference is:

I love Caminero and he's having a huge year for the best team in this league, but there's a big gap here everywhere we look. He'll need an Alvarez injury or a big slump.

First off, McGonigle wasn't listed among the MVP odds and it's pretty shocking. He entered Thursday's action leading the AL in bWAR. We'll circle back to him in a second.

Dingler, the former first pick of the second round, was very good last season, but this marks a significant breakout season. As a catcher, he's hitting .264/.328/.509 with 23 doubles, two triples, 26 home runs, 81 RBI and 65 runs. He is right on Alvarez (0.1 behind) in fWAR. He's tied for fourth in home runs and is second in RBI. We could give bonus points for him as a catcher here, but that didn't go too well for Cal Raleigh last season, did it?

McGonigle is, again, first in bWAR and also fourth in fWAR. He gets boosts in baserunning and defense that aren't obvious on the stat sheet but are incredibly valuable to his team. The stat sheet says he's a .286/.390/.426 hitter with 21 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs, 48 RBI, 79 runs and 12 steals. He's third in OBP and has meant the absolute world to the Tigers in hanging around in the playoff race despite a terrible month of May.

That isn't taking the MVP from a player with Alvarez's gaudy hitting line.

Rice looked like a legitimate MVP early in the season, but the Yankees' offense has collapsed and he's struggled to the point that he's hitting .256/.351/.540. The 32 homers, 76 RBI and 75 runs are great, but we're talking about a power hitter who doesn't add much value on defense or the bases. When we're looking at that type of candidate, Alvarez is crushing him and there's still a ways to go for Rice to catch Caminero. Next.

Witt's Royals are one of the worst teams in baseball. His only shot here is an Alvarez collapse, along with a bunch of voters going with the "best player" approach instead of worrying about which players are on contenders. He's an all-around talent who has finished second and fourth in voting in the last two seasons, respectively. This time around, Witt is hitting .285/.355/.448 (129 OPS+) with 25 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs, 42 RBI, 60 runs, 32 stolen bases, 5.3 bWAR and 5.3 fWAR.

The way things are going, Witt would have to lap the field here and he's not doing that. Move along.

Alvarez has a huge lead. Should he suffer an injury or fall into an extended slump, there's an opening for Caminero. Maybe.

Dingler and McGonigle are longer shots. Rice would have to get as hot as he was to start the season and I'm still not seeing it. That's about it here, given how things look right now.

Indexed and credited by AIPROPX. Originating outlet: CBS Sports. Open at source →