Football Extra newsletter: Is there a looming problem for the Premier League?

Ezri Konsa became the 11th player to move from a team outside the Premier League's big six to one of the elite sextet this summer, joining Arsenal from Aston Villa this month [Getty Images]

A curse of modern fandom is being required to understand the latest acronym that will dictate which way the wind blows your team for the foreseeable.

An awareness of these various mechanisms, like Uefa's Football Earnings guidelines, or the Premier League's Squad Cost Ratio (which replaced the Profit and Sustainability Rules this season), is of greater importance to some fanbases than others. Those who follow one of the 'big six' probably have to think about them a whole let less than supporters of a side like Aston Villa, Newcastle, Brighton or any of the other challenger teams seeking to gatecrash the elite.

The aim of this piece is not to describe what the rules now are – for a clear explanation on that, you can go here – but to analyse the impact of such regulations; how have they influenced teams' behaviour this summer – and what do they mean for the future competitive balance of the Premier League?

The state of play

Villa Park provides the best case study in that at present. Unai Emery's side have performed miracles during the Spaniard's reign, qualifying for the Champions League twice, winning a European trophy and securing a top-seven league finish in each of his four full seasons.

"It's very hard to say they haven't done pretty much everything right from an execution perspective on the football side," Stefan Borson, football finance expert and head of sport at law firm McCarthy Denning, told BBC Sport. "I mean, somehow last season they even managed to qualify for the Champions League in two different routes. That's just unbelievable."

Yet for the past two summers the Villans have been operating under penalty from Uefa, having fallen foul of the European governing body's financial regulations during the 2024-25 season in which they returned to the Champions League.

As part of a settlement for breaching these cost controls, Villa agreed to reduce their spending fairly aggressively over a period of three years, to fall in line with Uefa's mandatory 70% squad cost limit. This means clubs in continental competition must not exceed spending that percentage of revenue on wages, transfers, and agent fees – much stricter than the 85% now permitted under the new Premier League rules.

Ex-Villa man Morgan Rogers scored on his debut for Chelsea against Fulham on Monday, a first goal since moving to west London for £117m this summer [Getty Images]

Feeling the bite

Villa's business during this summer's window reflects how sharply that settlement continues to impact with several first-team players, including Ezri Konsa (to Arsenal) and Morgan Rogers (to Chelsea), departing for big fees. Meanwhile, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest and Chelsea have all received varying degrees of the same punishment for similar recent breaches.

But with the big six making more money than ever, supporters of aspiring clubs have questioned whether the convergence of European and domestic spending rules threatens to widen the chasm between the top earners and the chasing pack.

"It will compound that gap over time, largely because of the Champions League," Borson explained.

"Qualifying for that now is worth, let's say, £70million to £100m on average. If you can get that every year, that's such a massive advantage in terms of revenue and profit compared to the other teams, even after all the costs you incur from it.

"Villa have done it twice out of three years, which is an amazing achievement given their wage bill, but they did it by having to take the view that they would just breach Uefa's football earnings and SCR test. And because they've now breached that, then they have to restrict their spending. And so, to some extent, they're back to square one."

But if the only way to close the gap is to consistently qualify for the Champions League what choice is there but to spend, when the consequences of not qualifying for continental competition are so severe?

"Missing out on European football – particularly the Champions League now – is almost like a mini relegation," Borson added.

For the greater good?

But there is another side of this debate. For every team in the restless middle class of the English top flight frustrated by the current regulatory landscape, there are others for whom this well-intended push for sustainability has come too late.

Teams like Bury, Macclesfield, Sheffield Wednesday – even Everton, who at one point seemed dangerously close to becoming the first top-flight team to enter administration since Portsmouth – have shown the clear need for some level of regulation, to protect clubs from themselves more than anything.

It is a "balancing act", said Dr Christina Philippou, an expert in sport finance at the University of Portsmouth, trying to facilitate ambition while "mitigating against your club disappearing forever".

In 2010, Portsmouth became the first ever Premier League club to enter adminstration [Getty Images]

"That [the club's existence being threatened] is a distinct possibility if it goes terribly," she continued. "The problem is ultimately ambition trumps everything until the unthinkable happens and then it's terrible. That's why the rules were introduced in the first place.

"But there have been so many tweaks over the years because every rule has side effect. It's like medicine. You take something for one thing, but it has a side effect. And for an illness that is really serious, people might take one set of medication to treat their disease and then another set to treat the side effects of their main medication. Tweaking the financial rules is very much like that.

"I don't think w...

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