NC State vs. Virginia NCAA picks: With QB CJ Bailey returning, Wolfpack can upset Cavaliers, surprise in ACC

The first matchup from inside a power conference in the new college football season kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday as North Carolina State visits Virginia in the ACC. I believe the Wolfpack, led by returning quarterback C.J. Bailey, are terrific value to at least reach the conference title game and are certainly capable of the upset in Charlottesville.

ESPN has the national telecast Saturday of a game that originally was to be played in Rio de Janeiro for the first-ever major U.S. college football game in South America. That was called off for various reasons and it's back to a true home game for UVA. There is split ATS action with the Wahoos at -4.5 and also split on the total of 53.5. Bet on college football at DraftKings, where new users get $200 when they spend $5+:

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These schools had originally agreed to a home-and-home nonconference series that wouldn't count in the ACC standings because games were added outside the league scheduling model. But the ACC has gone to nine conference games this year (for most schools) so it's now a league game.

It didn't count in the league standings in 2025 in Raleigh, when the Wolfpack beat the Cavaliers 35-31, also early in the season. Bailey threw for 200 yards and a score and rushed for two touchdowns, and that he's back this season has me pretty high on coach Dave Doeren's club despite only eight overall starters returning.

Bailey threw for 3,105 yards and 25 scores last year while rushing for six touchdowns to become the first NC State quarterback since Russell Wilson in 2010 with at least 25 passing and five rushing scores in the same season. He's +12500 for the 2025 Heisman. The Wolfpack ended last season on a three-game winning streak capped by blowout over Memphis in the Gasparilla Bowl, the school's first bowl win since 2017.

NC State is seeking its first ACC title since 1979, the longest active drought among current members. I believe my Miami Hurricanes will win that this year, and they are -146 favorites with NCSU at +2000. To just reach the ACC title game for the first time in school history, the Wolfpack are +600 and I think they can get there especially with a win over Virginia.

The rest of the conference slate is a piece of cake, as they miss top contenders Miami, SMU and Clemson , as well as pseudo-football member Notre Dame . The only currently ranked school on the schedule is No. 24 Louisville , which visits Raleigh on Oct. 3 (UofL isn't ranked in the coaches poll).

The non-conference schedule is vs. Richmond , at Vanderbilt and vs. Appalachian State . CBS Sports' Brad Crawford wrote last month that NC State has the easiest overall Power Four schedule this season, and I agree with him. The team's Over/Under win total is 7.5, and I like Over at +120 as NCSU easily could run the table at home and then would need just one more victory to reach eight. That might come here.

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Virginia set a school record with 11 wins last season in a make-or-break year for coach Tony Elliott, capped by a Gator Bowl victory over Missouri , for a six-win improvement over 2024 – the biggest jump in school history. The Cavs would have been headed to the College Football Playoff for the first time had they taken care of business as a 4.5-point favorite against Duke in the ACC title game, but the Blue Devils dominated in the upset.

Elliott, the 2025 ACC Coach of the Year, has a new starting QB this year in Beau Pribula , who was 7-3 last year as a starter at Missouri with 17 total touchdowns and nine interceptions. He had zero passing TDs and four picks in his final four starts, and this marks his third school in three seasons.

Virginia must replace its top three rushers from 2025, led by first-team All-ACC tailback J'Mari Taylor. Kameron Courtney (25 catches, 234 yards) is the only returning wideout who caught more than three passes. UVA is +2000 to return to the ACC title game and has a regular season wins total of 7.5. The Wahoos are one victory shy of 700 all-time.

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While NC State is 0-4 ATS in its past four openers and Virginia is 7-0 (6-1 ATS) in its past seven, the Wolfpack have won the past three in this series outright as a betting dog. They have won four straight games in this series overall and not lost at Virginia since 2006. The model has UVA winning 30-25. That works. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter .

Indexed and credited by AIPROPX. Originating outlet: CBS Sports. Open at source →