Tech buyers are baking in sovereignty from day one, says Forrester

Geopolitical tensions, regulatory pressure, and growing awareness of risk are prompting organizations to build sovereignty requirements into new technology projects from day one, according to Forrester. The research firm says organizations worldwide are specifying data residency and sovereign AI architecture requirements at the planning stage. European firms face greater pressure than their US peers because the region has fewer domestically developed hyperscale AI platforms. The analysis comes as the EU launches a tender to establish up to seven AI gigafactories across Europe, its latest attempt to strengthen the bloc's technological sovereignty. The projects will receive up to €10 billion in EU and national funding, with at least another €20 billion expected from private investors. Dario Maisto, principal analyst at Forrester, said sovereignty was fast becoming an imperative for tech buyers. "The organisations that succeed will treat sovereignty as an architectural principle from the start – establishing clear governance, maintaining control across the AI stack, and designing flexible operating models that can adapt to evolving regulatory and geopolitical conditions." Pressure is greatest in Europe, where US tech giants dominate the market and domestic hyperscale AI platforms are scarce. "Europe is becoming one of the most important testing grounds for sovereign AI," Maisto said. "Organisations increasingly want assurance that they maintain control over how AI systems are built, governed, and operated, while still benefiting from global innovation. The vendors that can deliver both trust and flexibility will be best positioned to win in the European market." Maisto said buyers were looking beyond data location to ask who manages encryption keys, who has operational access, where models are trained, and which laws apply. In June, the European Union introduced a Technological Sovereignty Package intended to strengthen its digital autonomy. Among the proposals was an auditable, four-level control system called Union Assurance Levels (UALs), based on an organization's degree of control over jurisdiction, data processing, supply chains, and security. "The introduction of UALs will likely cause confusion for providers and buyers, as it adds to an already crowded landscape of existing cloud sovereignty criteria," according to analyst Gartner. European providers account for only around 15 percent of the region's cloud infrastructure market, leaving the dominant US suppliers subject to American jurisdiction. Last year, International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan lost access to his work-based Microsoft services after the US government imposed sanctions on him. Gartner forecasts that European spending on sovereign cloud infrastructure services will more than triple between 2025 and 2027 as geopolitical tensions drive investment in homegrown services. ®

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